Kiley McDaniel’s MLB draft stock watch: Which prospects are playing their way into (and out of) the first round?

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7:00 AM ET

I have been making the rounds from my home in Atlanta for the past three weeks to watch high school and college games with the 2021 MLB draft now four months away. It’s not time to update my initial ranking of the top 50 prospects for this summer’s draft just yet, but there are plenty of players making their way up (and down) the first round from what I have seen in my first in-person looks of the season.

College position players

I already wrote up extended thoughts on the two top collegiate prospects in the country, Vanderbilt righties Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. They’re still holding strong right at the top of the board.

The biggest question in this year’s draft is the hierarchy of college position players, both the general weakness of the class and how much tougher the players are to separate with almost no recent performance record to fall back on. UCLA shortstop Matt McLain was the consensus top option entering the season and has held that spot this spring, while the slots behind him are getting a little more certain.

Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo is the consensus second option and I saw him a couple of weeks ago against Florida. He has developed into an average receiver with enough arm strength and offensively he has above-average bat control and plate discipline with solid average raw power. There isn’t a plus tool on his scouting card, but he makes strong contact, plays a premium position and has some track record in a major conference, so Del Castillo might sneak into the top 10 picks as it stands today.

The biggest riser in this demographic is Boston College center fielder Sal Frelick. He didn’t have the benefit of a high school scouting profile, or the late-sophomore major-conference looks that lead into a Cape/Team USA summer. Since Frelick has tools, an accomplished multisports background, and has performed, he was high on lists to see early this spring. He has a 1.363 OPS with four homers through 11 games, two of them coming last Friday vs. Auburn ace Richard Fitts when I was in attendance. Frelick just hits, he has above-average bat speed, 70 foot speed, an average arm and only fringy raw power, but his approach and shorter arms allow him to make a lot of contact and get to his power in games. He probably goes in the 10th to 15th overall area right now. Frelick also has some history of playing the infield, which could come into play in pro ball.

The last of the risers in this group is Louisville catcher Henry Davis. He’s doing an impression of Evan Gattis at the plate, with plus raw power, a power-oriented cut and a solid approach. Davis has had 80 arm strength since high school but is still a little raw behind the plate in terms of receiving. He almost perfectly fits the type of catcher who benefits most from automated strike calling and fits in the middle of Round 1 right now.

Some other college bats I’ve seen in the past three weeks to keep an eye on:

Florida center fielder Jud Fabian has 65-grade raw power and is a solid average defender in center field, but has 20- or 30-grade pitch recognition right now, giving him real trouble with offspeed pitches. It’s been better than this in the past, but scouts have now tossed him into the Jeren Kendall big-tools-can’t-really-hit bucket until he proves otherwise, but he would still go in the back half of the first round.

Louisville infielder Alex Binelas broke his hamate bone last spring but has already shown plus raw power this spring. He’s a third/first-base tweener who needs to improve his lateral quickness and just hasn’t made a good impression at the plate thus far. He’s in the second round now, but former UCLA first baseman Michael Toglia had a similar fall but rebounded into the first round by draft time.

Florida catcher Nathan Hickey was well-scouted in high school but wasn’t great behind the plate or in great shape, so his hit/power/patience combo didn’t have a pro profile. He has slimmed up and is now decent behind the plate and the offensive ability is still there, so a strong season could get him in the top 50 picks behind Del Castillo, Davis and maybe Memphis’ Hunter Goodman in what now looks like a solid catcher class.

BC has another lefty hitter of interest in infielder Cody Morissette. Like Frelick, he’s a smaller guy with fringy raw power, but Morissette doesn’t have game-changing foot or bat speed. He’s a solid hitter who probably fits best at second base in pro ball and sits in the second round right now.

Louisville has two other eligible position players of interest in outfielder Levi Usher and utilityman Lucas Dunn. Usher is a plus runner with some bat control who is facing high-level competition for the first time, so a strong spring will land him in the second round. Dunn plays all over and has a collection of average big league tools, but is playing better than Usher or Binelas; I think Dunn fits in the third round right now. Florida utilityman Jacob Young is another player similar to Dunn.

The most notable of the underclassman bats are Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada (solid defensively, great feel for contact) and first baseman Andrew Compton (plus raw power, solid approach), who both look like first-rounders. Vanderbilt shortstop Carter Young, third baseman Parker Noland and center fielder Enrique Bradfield are all playing up to their top-two-round tools, as are Florida’s shortstop Colby Halter and outfielder Sterlin Thompson along with Miami infielder Yohandy Morales. Florida’s Josh Rivera is off to a slow start but also has top-two-rounds tools and has improved since getting to Gainesville.

College pitchers

I mentioned Auburn’s Fitts above, and he hasn’t been very good his past few outings. In my look vs. BC, he was 93-95 mph and flashed an above-average slider and changeup in the first inning, but quickly tailed off in terms of stuff and command. I’ve been told his offspeed never came in a prior outing, so he has now moved into the second round until he can show more consistency. The frame, arm action, delivery, stuff and components for command are all here, which is why he was getting mid-first-round grades in the fall. I think he should focus more on a four-seam fastball than his sinker given his characteristics.

Mississippi State righty Eric Cerantola matched up with Kent State righty Luke Albright last Saturday in Starkville, Mississippi. Cerantola is listed at 6-foot-5, 222 pounds and opened the game sitting 95-99 mph, a similar look to 2020 first-rounders Cade Cavalli and Slade Cecconi. Cerantola’s curveball flashed plus multiple times and his changeup also showed above-average action when he got it right. He gave up four walks and a couple of infield hits, bunts and bloops, so his line looks worse than his performance, but Cerantola also has below-average command that needs to improve. The shape/tilt of his four-seam fastball also isn’t conducive to “rise” or swings-and-misses, forcing him to pitch backward more than his elite velocity should. Cerantola is a premium development ball of clay, but I think his market starts in the comp round, with a likely spot in the second round if the draft was today.

Albright had shown more raw stuff in prior outings, but looked like a polished back-end starter in a strong 6.2-inning showing. He sat 90-93 mph with two- and four-seam heaters, along with a slider, curveball and changeup that were all around average, playing up a bit due to command. This version of Albright fits in the back of the second round, but it might be worth monitoring to see if that mid-90s velocity comes back before the draft.

Boston College righty Mason Pelio matched up with Fitts and had a solid showing. He sat 93-95 mph much of his outing, with a solid average changeup and curveball, which he had trouble landing for strikes. He doesn’t look that athletic on the mound and has always had some reliever risk, so he fits in the third round right now. Louisville righty Jack Perkins was up to 98 mph in recent weeks but was 92-95 mph in a look last weekend. His signature pitch is a plus 3000 rpm breaking ball, and he also has a usable changeup and Craig Kimbrel-type vibe on the mound. His delivery and command leave a bit to be desired, he missed last season with Tommy John surgery, and his fastball tilt/shape had the same bat-missing issue that Cerantola’s does; I’d say the third round for Perkins as well.

I also ran into a number of solid underclass pitching options as well. Vanderbilt freshman Christian Little sat 92-95 mph in relief, with a 55-grade curveball, but diminished command and increased effort from his showcase circuit outing. I hadn’t seen 6-foot-6 Vandy freshman lefty and Maine native Hunter Owen before, but he impressed in relief, sitting 91-93 mph with a solid average three-pitch mix. Florida had two impressive underclass arms in my look, though lefty starter Hunter Barco (low-90s, plus changeup, starter traits) and righty reliever Brandon Sproat (94-98 mph, plus slider) didn’t have great showings, while Miami righty starter Victor Mederos (up to 97 mph, above-average changeup, solid breaker) had notably improved since high school. Lastly, Georgia Tech jumbo righty reliever Zach Maxwell was 94-98 mph with an above-average curveball and reliever-type command.

High school players

Georgia prep catcher Harry Ford has consistent first-round grades right now, due in large part to his unique set of skills. He’s an above-average runner, defender and thrower who also has plus raw power and a track record of making contact with wood bats against top competition. He’s also built like a powerlifter but does enough flexibility training to stay loose behind the plate. Ford’s swing needs some work (his swing from the summer was better suited to pro ball) but the feel for contact is evident. I’ve consistently said I’m terrified by the prep catcher demographic and a swing rework isn’t a variable I’m thrilled about, but this is how you’d draw up the tools and skills for an amateur catcher.

The IMG Academy team is one of the most talented high school squads ever and is probably the best top-to-bottom prep roster that we’ve ever seen.

Outfielder James Wood was a mid-first-round prospect off of a strong summer and, like Ford, has a unique profile: a 6-foot-6, 240-pound outfielder with plus bat control and deceptively solid average speed. There are scouts who think he’s quick enough to play center field in pro ball, while others (I lean this way) think he might eventually end up at first base. This wide gap in projections is due to something scouts and analysts both hate: not having comparisons. I can’t think of a pro prospect who’s anything close to Ford or Wood and that’s generally seen as a bad thing, though I’m not sure it is. Wood’s projection is tied to what you think will happen to his frame and athleticism and his body comps are Aaron Judge, Richie Sexson, Giancarlo Stanton and various basketball players who all aren’t that close of a comp but are the best we can do.

I see similarities for Wood with Kyle Tucker as a hit/power/patience prep bat with a track record that gives uneven looks in any given game due to the low-blood-pressure demeanor and patient approach. I’ve seen three games of Wood this spring and he’ll go double-digit pitches without swinging, which makes scouting him difficult if you didn’t get summer looks. Jason Heyward also had this issue in his draft spring which helped him slide out of the top 10. In a class in which most college bats have, at best, the same bulk of performance as the elite prep bats, the top tier of prep hitters (which includes Wood) will be treated similarly to college bats and Wood’s ultimate position won’t really affect his ultimate big league upside. I think Wood will land between picks 15 and 25.

Lefties Drew Gray, Mason Albright and Jackson Ferris anchor IMG’s rotation with very different looks. Gray has the best pro characteristics, a projectable, athletic 6-foot-3 frame with the fastball/curveball spin axis that pairs well and curveball spin rates well above major league average. After his opening appearance of the year, there was late-first-round buzz, then in my look two weeks later Gray had trouble locating his fastball at the top of the zone, mostly pocketing his curveball. As a two-way player and Illinois native who moved to IMG this year, Gray fits the bill as a later-blooming developmental project on the mound who fits somewhere from picks 25 to 50 depending on how consistent he is this spring.

Albright was one of the best pitchability prospects this summer, sitting 88-91 mph with fringy stuff but advanced feel. He came out this spring sitting 92-94 mph early in outings and showing solid average raw stuff, but with command that was closer to major league average. I think he fits somewhere around the back half of the second round. Ferris isn’t eligible until the 2022 draft and had a velo spike this spring, vaulting him into first-round consideration when his time comes. He has some funk in his delivery and pitches from the high arm slot that helps create the vertical movement analysts like to see. He was 89-93 mph in my look but has been a couple of ticks higher this spring, with three above-average pitches and above-average feel to pitch.

In the IMG lineup, SS Drake Varnado (above-average contact skills, speed, shortstop fit) and 3B Tommy White (Blaze Jordan-esque likely first base fit, plus raw power) are draft eligibles showing second- or third-round potential, while 2023 catcher Brady Neal has the most upside of the underclass position players not named Elijah Green. I mentioned in my rankings piece that IMG center fielder Green is the best amateur prospect on Earth right now, complete with Ronald Acuna Jr. comps. I’ll let that stand for now, with this video below of some Manny Ramirez-esque swing mechanics:

I also got quick looks at a handful of early-round types at the same tournament IMG was in, played in Hoover, Alabama. Florida prep shortstop Edwin Arroyo also fits in rounds 2-3, as a switch-hitter who should stick at the position who has performed well at the plate. Massachusetts prep RF Jonathan Santucci (hit-first tweener outfielder) and Michigan prep 3B Luke Leto (hit-first infielder who now looks more like a third-base fit) are 2021 eligible and played on a travel team in the tournament, largely showing the same look as they did over the summer. Alabama prep righty Grant Taylor faced IMG and performed well, working 91-94 mph and relying on a plus downer curveball. His frame and delivery aren’t ideal for deep projection, but the chances he’s getting key outs for LSU out of the bullpen next year are high.

Georgia prep righty Bubba Chandler (Clemson commit as a quarterback, pitcher and shortstop) had a highly scouted matchup with outfielder Thad Ector and showed well. Chandler took the first pitch he faced out right-handed while DHing (he’s a switch-hitter), and sat 93-96 mph early in the start, settling a bit lower. He’s a (you guessed it) natural athlete with three potentially above-average pitches and starter traits, despite a short track record on the mound, with interest as high as the back half of the first round.

Two more prep arms of note: 2021 righty from Tampa Prep HS (Fla.) Jose Pena and 2022 righty from Buford HS (Ga.) Dylan Lesko. Pena is an intriguing developmental type who’s into the mid-90s and flashes a plus spike curveball but is still pretty raw at this point, with some interest as high as the second round. Lesko has been the top arm in the loaded 2022 prep pitching class and didn’t disappoint in my look: opening at 95-96 mph, mixing in a curveball and changeup that both flashed 55- or 60-grade upside. Lesko still has over a year to navigate until his draft, but is on a trajectory to be the best prep pitching prospect since Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore in 2017. The 2022 prep class already has eight pitchers who have shown first-round potential, a remarkable amount for this juncture: Lesko; Ferris; righties Brock Porter, Ian Ritchie Jr. and Nick Dugan; and lefties Brandon Barriera, Tristan Smith and Noah Schultz.

This article was originally published by Espn.com. Read the original article here.
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