Bill Connelly's mega offseason previews: ACC Atlantic

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When splitting your conference into divisions, you can either let geography dictate the terms, or you can overthink. The ACC chose the latter when it broke into the Atlantic and Coastal divisions for football in 2005, presumably taking a stab at competitive balance (and, theoretically, annual Florida State–Miami title games).

Competitive balance changes over time, however. Programs rise and fall. And while the Coastal is a bastion of perfect parity (and less-than-elite play), the Atlantic has become the ACC Clemson division. The Tigers have won six division titles in a row, dropping just one of 33 games to Atlantic foes in that span.

Programs indeed rise and fall, but Clemson doesn’t appear likely to give up its perch any time soon. The ACC could and should wise up and ditch divisions in favor of a pods system, but that probably wouldn’t put an end to Clemson’s streak of conference dominance; the Tigers are simply too good for the rest of the ACC.

Beyond the title race, though, there are plenty of interesting subplots in the Atlantic this season. How does Louisville respond to a run of bad luck in 2020? When might Florida State actually start looking like Florida State again? Who among the division’s middle five teams finds close-game fortune and makes a run at eight or nine wins? So let’s dive into the outlook for each team.

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC and the seven Independents.

Syracuse headed into October 2019 the winner of 13 of its last 18 games. Since then, the Orange are 3-15.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 95th

Projected win total: 3.5 (1.6 in the ACC)

Likely wins*: Albany (75% win probability)
Relative toss-ups: Rutgers (56%), at Ohio (40%)
Likely losses: Wake Forest (34%), Boston College (33%), Liberty (23%), Pitt (23%), at Florida State (21%), at Louisville (16%), at NC State (16%), at Virginia Tech (12%), Clemson (3%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.

Dino Babers enters 2021 on a pretty hot seat, with few known playmakers and, after non-conference play, fewer potential wins.

What we learned about Syracuse in 2020

Things can fall apart quickly. Granted, the Orange finished just 40th in SP+ in 2018 while going 10-3, their win total plumped up by a gaudy turnover margin and a weak ACC. But 40th turned into 77th in 2019 and 111th last fall. They continue to field one of the best special teams units in the country — sixth or better in special teams SP+ for four straight years — but both the offense and defense have collapsed.

One-time star QB recruit Tommy DeVito has been doomed by both poor development and dreadful line play. There was no run game to speak of, and while receivers Taj Harris and Nykeim Johnson flashed some downfield potential, neither DeVito nor Rex Culpepper, who took over when DeVito was lost to injury, had time to wait for them to get downfield. DeVito returns, as do every lineman (plus Florida transfer Chris Bleich), six of the top seven targets and RBs Sean Tucker, Abdul Adams and Jarveon Howard. (The latter two opted out in 2020.) Aside from perhaps Harris, though, almost nobody has played ACC-caliber ball to date.

What we didn’t learn about Syracuse in 2020

How long it might take for the defense to rebound. At its best a couple of years ago, Syracuse had what you might call a high-end bend-don’t-break defense; the high end mostly disappeared last season. Syracuse ranked 83rd in sack rate despite constant blitzing, and a secondary transitioning from veterans to freshmen struggled.

The front six returns virtually intact and features a couple of fun, young blitzers in linebackers Geoff Cantin-Arku and Marlowe Wax. But the most experienced defensive back might be NMSU transfer Jason Simmons Jr., a sophomore. Corner Garrett Williams is super aggressive but still has some rough edges.

Syracuse’s history in one chart

Syracuse’s RB lineage, starting in the mid-1950s: Jim Brown (1954-56), Ernie Davis (1959-61), Floyd Little (1964-66), Larry Csonka (1965-67). Not bad.
Until Alabama’s 2020 team came along, the 1959 Syracuse team, which went 11-0 and won the national title, was the highest-rated team ever according to SP+.
After a 1970s slide, Syracuse rebounded under Dick MacPherson, going 21-2-1 in 1987-88, then continuing solid play under MacPherson’s successor, Paul Pasqualoni.
From 1991-2001, SU finished ranked seven times and boasted steady high-end talent: Donovan McNabb, Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, etc. Then came the collapse.
In two years, Babers’ Orange have gone from “best Cuse team since 2001” to “worst since 1948.” Is there any bouncing back from this without a coaching change?

After averaging 11.8 wins from 2012-16, FSU has gone just 21-26 under three different coaches. Mike Norvell has to rebuild a winning culture beginning in his second season.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 61st

Projected win total: 5.4 (3.1 in the ACC)

Likely wins*: UMass (97%), Jacksonville State (95%), Syracuse (79%)
Relative toss-ups: at Wake Forest (49%), Louisville (48%), at Boston College (48%), NC State (47%)
Likely losses: Notre Dame (32%), Miami (18%), at Florida (13%), at North Carolina (13%), at Clemson (6%)

FSU should improve this year, but a schedule that features five projected top-25 teams (including UNC and Miami in cross-division play) could keep the win total tamped down.

What we learned about FSU in 2020

The defense needs a full-scale remodel. Adam Fuller had a tough first season as defensive coordinator. FSU was 85th in defensive SP+, its worst ranking since 2009, after getting only brief contributions from veterans like DT Marvin Wilson and safety Hamsah Nasirildeen, both of whom are now gone (as is second-round corner Asante Samuel Jr.). Corner Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is solid, and nine of the 14 players with 200+ snaps return, but Norvell clearly felt talent was an issue, bringing in five defensive transfers (and counting), including Georgia end Jermaine Johnson and a South Carolina duo (nickel Jammie Robinson and end Keir Thomas).

Jordan Travis can run. The Louisville transfer got an extended look at QB last season and averaged 7.5 yards per non-sack carry. FSU averaged 32 points per game when he was the primary QB, 15 when he wasn’t. He provided a desperately-needed identity, one FSU could expand on with RB Jashaun Corbin and a line that returns intact.

What we didn’t learn about FSU in 2020

Can Travis pass? His 55% completion rate was too low, and his 8% sack rate and 5% interception rate were both too high. Junior receiver Ontaria Wilson is solid, but the receiving corps is mostly unproven, and while the line is better than it has been, it still wasn’t particularly good in 2020. This offense should stay on schedule well, but bad things will probably happen when they fall behind the chains.

Is there a quick road back at this point? A bad season is one thing; four seasons of mediocrity is another. The aura from the Jameis Winston/Jimbo Fisher days is gone, and it might take a little while to build it back.

FSU’s history in one chart

The pre-Bobby Bowden era at FSU hit its peak with a 9-1-1 campaign in 1964 that included a blowout of Oklahoma and 70 receptions for Fred Biletnikoff (of Biletnikoff Award fame).
FSU went just 4-29 from 1973-75, then made one of the most paradigm-shifting hires in college football history: Bowden.
Beginning in 1987, Bowden’s program unleashed a run of 14 consecutive AP top-five finishes, complete with two national titles (1993, 1999) and two No. 2 finishes.
Fortunes faded in Bowden’s final seasons, but the Noles ripped off four top-10 finishes in five years under Fisher, winning the 2013 title.
If FSU’s recent record didn’t indicate how steep the drop-off has been, the chart above probably will.

In Jeff Hafley’s first season, BC nearly beat Clemson, nearly lost to Texas State and went win-lose-win-lose for most of the season. But mixed results are better than bad ones!

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 62nd

Projected win total: 6.6 (3.3 in the ACC)

Likely wins*: Colgate (99%), at UMass (93%), at Temple (83%), at Syracuse (67%)
Relative toss-ups: Wake Forest (57%), Missouri (52%), Florida State (52%), NC State (44%), Virginia Tech (37%), at Georgia Tech (37%)
Likely losses: at Louisville (34%), at Clemson (5%)

Like quite a few ACC teams, BC is facing a ton of potential tossups. Overachieving projections just a little might produce a huge swing in the win total.

What we learned about BC’s in 2020

Cignetti plus Jurkovec equals upside. Offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti and former Notre Dame quarterback Phil Jurkovec formed a nice partnership — Jurkovec finished a decent 34th in Total QBR, and the passing game caught the Eagles up to the chains after the run game went nowhere.

At worst, it will be the same story in 2021. Jurkovec returns, along with an explosive receiving corps featuring slot man Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis, Jaelen Gill and 2019 contributor Kobay White, who missed last year with an ACL injury. The offensive line returns all five starters, too, including all-conference center Alec Lindstrom. Leading returning RB Travis Levy averaged 3.2 yards per carry, though; it’s possible WVU transfer Alec Sinkfield provides some pop, but improvement on the ground isn’t guaranteed.

What we didn’t learn about BC in 2020

When might this look like a true Hafley defense? Hafley was an excellent defensive coordinator at Ohio State, but while BC improved defensively in his first year, it was only from 110th to 98th in defensive SP+. The Eagles attempted heavy man coverage, but after some decent early returns, the defense got swamped to the tune of 6.8 yards per play and a 153.2 passer rating over the final seven games. Since the run defense was problematic all year, too, BC had few answers.

The secondary returns intact — corners Brandon Sebastian, Josh DeBerry and especially Jason Maitre have massive potential — and the line is loaded with seniors. The linebacking corps is starting over, but if the other units improve that won’t be a big deal. Still, how much improvement can be expected? It has been a while since the days of Frank Spaziani and top-25 defenses

BC’s history in one chart

Doug Flutie, of nearby Natick, began his career in 1981. Four seasons, 10,579 passing yards, a Heisman and a Hail Flutie later, he was a legend.
Tom Coughlin quickly turned around a flagging program: BC finished in the AP Top 25 in 1992 and 1993 and pulled a classic upset of Notre Dame before he left for the pros..
2007: BC starts 8-0, beats Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Clemson and briefly rises to second in the polls behind the right arm of Matt Ryan.
After going 20-8 in 2007-08, Jeff Jagodzinski gets fired for interviewing for other jobs. Neither he nor the Eagles have seen the same success since.
The Eagles have won 6-7 games for seven of the last eight years, but ratings have slipped. Can Hafley pull them out of this rut?

After an alarming stumble to 4-8 in 2020, Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack bounced back to 8-4 despite QB injury issues. Now, 18 to 19 starters return.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 45th

Projected win total: 6.9 (3.6 in the ACC)

Likely wins*: Furman (95%), Louisiana Tech (93%), USF (88%), Syracuse (84%)
Relative toss-ups: Louisville (57%), at Wake Forest (57%), at Boston College (56%), at Florida State (53%), at Mississippi State (44%)
Likely losses: North Carolina (26%), at Miami (16%), Clemson (15%)

What a tantalizing schedule. If the Pack improve more than projected — a distinct possibility, since SP+ doesn’t take quarterback Devin Leary‘s 2020 injury into account — then they have a chance in virtually every game. If they are merely a top-50 level team, however, about eight games are losable.

What we learned about NC State in 2020

The upside remains. After winning between seven and nine games for five straight years, NC State stumbled in 2019, primarily on offense. But an improved run game and a dynamite receiving corps — Emeka Emezie and Devin Carter averaged 16 yards per catch, while slot receiver Thayer Thomas caught six touchdowns — boosted the Pack from 103rd to 62nd in offensive SP+. The defense let teams off the hook on passing downs sometimes but played reasonably efficient ball and improved in the red zone. Youngsters like LB Payton Wilson, safety Jakeen Harris and corner Shyheim Battle proved themselves quickly. A line with quite a few former four-star recruits mostly held up.

Nearly all the stars are back besides nose tackle Alim McNeill and guard Joe Sculthorpe. Bailey Hockman, who took over when Leary was hurt, transferred to Middle Tennessee State. But Leary was a small-sample size all-star — he played only four games but would have ranked 13th in Total QBR. It’s easy to be optimistic about this roster.

What we didn’t learn about NC State in 2020

Does experience paper over all cracks? Leary’s absence can’t explain all of State’s issues. The run game was still a bit of a liability (66th in rushing success rate with few big plays), and while the defense improved, it was still only 51st in defensive SP+. There were few true weaknesses, but the strengths weren’t incredibly strong either. Is that something sheer experience can take care of? Or is there more to SP+’s skepticism than Leary’s injury?

NC State’s history in one chart

The first member of the NC State-to-NFL QB lineage: Roman Gabriel. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards in Raleigh, then tossed nearly 30,000 in the pros.
Who do you call when you’ve bottomed out? Lou Holtz, who won 33 games in four years and engineered the Pack’s best AP finish, 11th in 1974, before leaving for Arkansas.
Moment of appreciation for Torry Holt. His last two seasons at State before embarking on what should end up a Hall-of-Fame NFL career: 150 catches, 2,703 yards, 27 TDs.
Another likely future Hall-of-Famer, Philip Rivers, threw for 13,484 yards in college and, in 2002, led State to 11 wins and a No. 12 finish.
Yet another future Hall-of-Famer, Russell Wilson, threw for 8,545 yards and rushed for 1,083 before transferring to Wisconsin. State hasn’t lacked for individual talent, has it?

The Demon Deacons crammed about three seasons into only nine games, a 4-5 campaign that saw a dominant four-game win streak sandwiched by losses and massive defensive issues.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 64th

Projected win total: 6.2 (3.7 in the ACC)

Likely wins*: Norfolk State (98%), Old Dominion (89%), Duke (80%), at Syracuse (66%)
Relative toss-ups: Florida State (51%), at Army (51%), Louisville (44%), NC State (43%), at Boston College (43%), at Virginia (39%)
Likely losses: at North Carolina (11%), at Clemson (5%)

Another team, another load of tossup games. If the mid-2020 defense makes an extended appearance, the Deacs could win big. A lesser D, however, could lead to another losing season.

What we learned about Wake Forest in 2020

Dave Clawson is still finding playmakers. The master program builder’s eighth season in Winston-Salem wasn’t his best, but despite mostly forgettable recruiting rankings, he keeps unearthing explosive pieces. Defensive end Carlos Basham Jr. was a second-round pick, quarterback Sam Hartman piloted four 40-point performances and threw for 429 yards against UNC, running back Christian Beal-Smith was inefficient but dangerous in the open field, leading receiver Jaquarii Roberson averaged 14.9 yards per catch and wideout Donavon Greene, one of the star recruits of the Clawson era, averaged 20.1. Safety Nick Andersen picked off four passes with five breakups as an unrated freshman, while another freshman, corner Caelen Carson, allowed only a 23.9 QBR in coverage.

The secondary broke down late in the year, but that’ll happen when half the rotation consists of freshmen. With Basham one of only two starters gone on either side of the ball, experience could catch up to potential soon.

What we didn’t learn about Wake Forest in 2020

Do youth and COVID-19 issues explain inconsistency? With all that explosiveness, Wake still got outscored by 23 points against eight FBS opponents. The offense, dynamite at times, ranked 71st in success rate and 77th in explosive play rate. The defense, with all these aggressive and interesting players, ranked 96th and 109th, respectively.

Wake was constantly battling postponements and COVID-19-related issues and played only once between Halloween and Dec. 12. That’s going to make an impact. But the numbers, especially on defense, were awful. Upside is great, but Wake will have to prove its consistency and depth this fall.

Wake Forest’s history in one chart

The Deacs were ranked for at least part of every season from 1944-50, reached two bowls and went 6-1-2 in 1950, Peahead Walker’s last year as coach.
Norm Snead had one of the most amazing football journeys ever. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 47 INTs (!) at Wake, then 30,797 and 257 (!!), respectively, in the pros.
Wake spent one week in the AP top 15 between 1947 and 2006: They hit 14th in 1979 after beating Auburn on the way to an 8-4 finish and Tangerine Bowl bid.
Jim Grobe’s development abilities and funky tactics reached their pinnacle in 2006, when the Deacs came out of nowhere to win 11 games and their first ACC title since 1970.
Clawson’s 2017 squad was, per SP+, Wake’s best since 1950, going 8-5 against a loaded schedule and beating Texas A&M, 55-52, in a spectacular Belk Bowl.

Louisville’s last four seasons: eight wins, then two, then eight, then four. It has been a roller coaster, but stats suggest third-year coach Scott Satterfield has the Cardinals on the right track.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 47th

Projected win total: 7.0 (4.6 in the ACC)

Likely wins*: Eastern Kentucky (97%), Syracuse (84%), at Duke (80%), Boston College (66%)
Relative toss-ups: Virginia (62%), Kentucky (62%), at Wake Forest (56%), at Florida State (52%), UCF (50%), at NC State (43%)
Likely loss: vs. Ole Miss (34%), Clemson (14%)

The Cardinals’ close-games luck has bounced all over the place of late, and guess what: It appears there are lots more close games on the horizon this year!

What we learned about Louisville in 2020

The god of close games is finicky. In 2019, the Cardinals improved from 98th to 63rd in SP+ and from 1-9 to 5-5 in games decided by more than one score. In 2020, they jumped again, to 35th in SP+ and 4-3. Sounds great, right?

One extra detail: They were 4-0 in one-score games in 2019 and 0-3 last year. They “improved” but went from eight wins to four.

The Cardinals were quite a bit better than their record but were done in by terrible turnovers luck and, at times, shoddy special teams play. They have to replace more production than many in the ACC, but with even neutral close-games luck, they should have enough quality to bowl again.

What we didn’t learn about Louisville in 2020

What does the new skill corps have to offer? QB Malik Cunningham is dynamic with both arm and legs, but receivers Dez Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell are gone, as is running back Javian Hawkins. They keyed one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and even with the luxury of an experienced O-line, UL could struggle without big-play bailout options. Can exciting youngsters like RB Jalen Mitchell and WR Jordan Watkins shoulder that burden?

Whether the defense will start picking up slack at some point. Louisville improved to 75th in defensive SP+; that’s not great, but it was the Cards’ best ranking since 2017. The pass rush still needs major improvement — and could get it from Southern Miss transfer Jacques Turner — while the linebacking corps loses key playmakers, and corner Kei’Trei Clark is the only of the secondary’s top four players returning. New defensive coordinator Bryan Brown, Satterfield’s former DC at Appalachian State, will have to coax quality out of quite a few new starters.

Louisville’s history in one chart

After six straight losing seasons, Louisville brought in Howard Schnellenberger in 1985. In his first year, the Cards went 2-9. In his sixth, 10-1-1 with their first top-15 finish.
The first Bobby Petrino era: brief but outstanding. The Cardinals won 41 games in four years with two AP No. 6 finishes. Then he left as everyone knew he would.
Charlie Strong inherited a struggling side in 2010 but won 23 games in 2012-13 with help from the glories of Teddy Bridgewater (7,688 yards, 58 TDs).
The second Petrino era: 34 wins in four years, the program’s first Heisman winner (Lamar Jackson) … and a spectacular collapse in year five.
Satterfield needed no time to bring the Cards back to respectability. Close-game results, however, have left conflicting impressions.

Ten years with double-digit wins, seven ACC titles, six College Football Playoff appearances, two national titles. Not quite what we predicted when Clemson hired an unknown coach named Dabo Swinney in 2008.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: second

Projected win total: 10.9 (7.3)

Likely wins*: SC State (100%), UConn (100%), at Syracuse (97%), at South Carolina (97%), Boston College (95%), Wake Forest (95%), Florida State (94%), Georgia Tech (92%), at Louisville (86%), at NC State (85%), at Pitt (85%)
Relative toss-ups: vs. Georgia (60%)
Likely losses: none

While the ACC has four projected top-40 teams, the Tigers play none of them. That Week 1 battle with Georgia is going to be spectacular, though.

What we learned about Clemson in 2020

D.J. Uiagalelei is ready. Replacing a player the caliber of Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence — national title winner, No. 1 pick — will always be difficult. But we’ve already gotten a pretty sustained look at his replacement. When Lawrence missed two midseason games due to the coronavirus, freshman Uiagalelei stepped in and went 59-for-85 for 781 yards, four TDs and no INTs in two starts.

The 250-pound Uiagalelei proved to be a solid short-yardage power back and good decision-maker. Now he gets the keys to the car.

This defensive line is absurd. Tackle Bryan Bresee was the No. 3 player in the 2020 ESPN 300, end Myles Murphy No. 13. They combined for 11 TFLs and eight sacks as freshmen and looked good against the run too. Ends Justin Mascoll, K.J. Henry and Xavier Thomas also return (Justin Foster could, too), as do tackles Tyler Davis and other recent star recruits (DeMonte Capehart, Tré Williams, Payton Page). Good luck finding a better line in college football.

What we didn’t learn about Clemson in 2020

How good is the secondary? Brent Venables’ defense has ranked 11th or better in defensive SP+ for seven straight years. Ranking eighth last year means this was his second-worst defense of that span. The run defense was fantastic, but the pass defense was merely good (18th in passing success rate, 35th in passer rating allowed) and got torched by Ohio State in the CFP. Experience isn’t an issue (safety Nolan Turner returns for what feels like his 13th year of eligibility), but if the secondary’s upside was in question, it took a further hit with corner Derion Kendrick‘s transfer to Georgia.

UGA aside, it’s not clear if anyone on this schedule can totally test said upside. There are plenty of solid passing games in the Atlantic, but only BC did any semblance of damage. Whomever the Tigers might play in the CFP will, though.

What about the new skill corps? Dominant running back Travis Etienne and receivers Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell are gone. The replacements — RB Lyn-J Dixon, receivers E.J. Williams and Frank Ladson Jr., etc. — will almost certainly be excellent, but the departed starters set a really high bar.

Clemson’s history in one chart

Frank Howard didn’t just put Howard’s Rock at the top of the hill in the stadium; he also led the Tigers to six ranked finishes and unbeaten seasons in 1948 and 1950.
After a few years as a doorstop, Howard’s Rock officially showed up in the stadium in 1966.
Danny Ford from 1981-89: seven ranked finishes, three top-10s, a 30-2-2 stretch from 1981-83 and the 1981 national title.
Swinney had quit coaching for two years when he joined Tommy Bowden’s Clemson staff as WRs coach in 2003. Five years later, he was succeeding a fired Bowden.
Only Nick Saban has made college football more predictable in recent years than Swinney, who has transformed a top-20-or-so program into an annual CFP presence.

This article was originally published by Espn.com. Read the original article here.

Bill Connelly’s mega offseason previews: ACC Atlantic