The American Athletic Conference has been the best of the Group of 5 conferences, on average, for a couple of reasons. It usually has the best teams, of course — six of the group’s eight New Year’s Six bowl bids have gone to AAC champions since the College Football Playoff and NY6 structure was established.
It also tends to have the smallest amount of dead weight. Every current conference member has finished 43rd or better in SP+ at least once over the past eight seasons, and current members have finished worse than 110th only four times in the past six years.
We’ll see how things play out when conference realignment changes G5 conferences’ makeup in the coming seasons, but the current AAC tends to be better than most at both the top and the bottom. We’ll talk about the former next week and the latter today. In part one of this offseason’s AAC preview, we’ll look at the bottom six teams based on recent SP+ projections: Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, South Florida, Navy and Temple.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 131 FBS teams. The previews will include 2021 breakdowns, 2022 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: MWC West | MWC Mountain
2021 recap
Perhaps the biggest stories among these six teams last season were East Carolina’s breakthrough and Tulane’s collapse. After six consecutive losing seasons, ECU won three games in a row early in the season and four in a row late to finish 7-5. Mike Houston’s Pirates couldn’t celebrate with a bowl — their 2021 Military Bowl date with Boston College was canceled because of COVID-19 — but big plays on offense, success on blitz downs on defense and some friendly bounces in close games (they were 4-2 in one-score finishes) brought hope back to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
There was less hope in New Orleans, where, after Tulane’s first-ever run of three consecutive bowls, the Green Wave collapsed defensively, went 0-5 in one-score finishes and stumbled all the way to 2-10. Willie Fritz remains in charge, and there are certainly plenty of signs that this was a fluky season, but Tulane has quite a bit to prove in 2022. So, too, do Navy, USF and Temple, who went a combined 9-27. Tulsa also looked like it would be part of the 2021 Stumble Club with a 3-6 start, but the Golden Hurricane won their final four games to finish 7-6.
2022 projections
We will add the top five American teams to this table next week, but here are SP+ projections for these six teams:
USF and Navy each face top-50 schedules — USF faces seven projected top-40 teams (three top-30s in September alone), while Navy faces five top-40 teams plus Army in its final seven games — and Temple starts over under Stan Drayton after a jarring and speedy collapse. SP+ doesn’t think much of these teams’ chances.
For the other three teams here, the season will again be defined by close games. Per SP+, Tulsa and ECU both face schedules with three likely wins, five likely losses and four relative toss-ups (which I define as games projected within 7.5 points, or approximately one score). Tulane is looking at three likely wins, three likely losses and an incredible six-game stretch of relative toss-ups between Oct. 8 and Nov. 17. The Green Wave could be the turnaround team of 2022, or they could see another run of tight losses and frustration.
Burning questions
Can ECU take another step forward? There was an element of good fortune to ECU’s winning record in 2021. The Pirates barely beat FCS’ Charleston Southern in September and needed a buzzer-beating 54-yard field goal from Owen Daffer to beat what was then a 2-8 Navy team. Lose those two games, and the season retrospective is very different.
Of course, they were also close to something greater. They lost to South Carolina via last-second field goal, and they took Houston, the No. 2 team in the AAC, to overtime on the road before falling. SP+ saw this team as more of a six-win team than seven, but the Pirates made definitive improvement, especially their young defense.
Virtually everyone on the defensive line was either a freshman or sophomore, as were five of the nine DBs who saw 200 or more snaps. ECU loses a couple of dynamite defensive backs in corner Ja’Quan McMillian and safety Warren Saba (combined: nine INTs, 18 pass breakups), but nearly everyone else from the two-deep returns. This was an excellent passing-downs defense, and if experience leads to ECU forcing more passing downs, look out.
Quarterback Holton Ahlers returns after throwing for 3,126 yards, but the ECU offense was rather all or nothing. Running back Keaton Mitchell averaged 6.5 yards per carry, and his 3.4 yards per carry after contact ranked among the best in the conference. But yards after contact were a requirement considering ECU ranked 117th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and, consequently, 108th in rushing success rate. Ahlers found downfield success with returnees C.J. Johnson and Jsi Hatfield and sure-handed tight end Ryan Jones, but while he’s a good scrambler, he was also having to do it too much. The line returns three starters, plus 2020 starter Bailey Malovic (ACL tear in 2021). The Pirates must improve up front to improve on last year’s record.
What the heck happened to Tulane? The first impression we got of Willie Fritz’s Tulane squad in 2021 came in Norman, Oklahoma, where the Green Wave nearly scored their first win over a top-10 team since 1973, coming up inches short on fourth down and falling 40-35. Michael Pratt threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, the defense picked off two Spencer Rattler passes and made tons of red zone stops, and this seemed like an exciting, well-coached team with solid upside.
They pounded Morgan State the next week … and didn’t win again until late November. The offense was randomly explosive but inconsistent. Tulane averaged 19 points per game during an eight-game losing streak and allowed twice as much. The run defense was good, but it didn’t matter because the pass defense was dreadful. Maybe the two best Green Wave defenders — big end Darius Hodges (15 tackles for loss, five sacks, 12 run stuffs) and nickel Jadon Canady (four TFLs, two INTs, five pass breakups) — were a redshirt freshman and true freshman, respectively.
There are signs of hope that the downturn might not be permanent. For one thing, the Wave were 0-5 in close games. Despite a 2-10 record, they fell only to 89th in SP+, one spot ahead of where they were while going 7-6 in 2018. Plus, they didn’t suffer major attrition in the transfer portal as teams often do after poor seasons. That’s a sign of a positive culture if nothing else. Pratt, running back Tyjae Spears, nearly every receiver and four starters on the line all return on offense, while Hodges and Canady are among six starters returning (along with most of last year’s second-stringers) on defense.
Tulane will be far more experienced, and while Fritz retained defensive coordinator Chris Hampton for a second year after the Wave showed progress down the stretch (last four games: 20.3 PPG allowed), Fritz went back to his small-school roots to breathe life into the offense, hiring longtime Central Missouri head coach Jim Svoboda as coordinator. Svoboda succeeded Fritz at Central Missouri in 2010, and Shae Wyatt, Tulane’s leading receiver in 2021, came from the school, where he caught 65 balls for 1,452 yards in 2019.
Tulane has proved to be a difficult job through the years, and when the bottom drops out in such a program, it can happen quickly. I don’t think that’s what happened in New Orleans last season, but 2022 will obviously tell us a lot.
Can Tulsa keep winning with talent identification? Zaven Collins was a 220-pound linebacker from tiny Hominy, Oklahoma, who boasted no major college offers out of high school. He won the Lombardi and Bronko Nagurski awards in 2020 and was picked 16th in the NFL draft. Jaxon Player was a 6-foot defensive tackle who chose Tulsa over Central Arkansas and Houston Baptist. An All-American, he just transferred to Big 12 champion Baylor for his final collegiate season. Trevis Gipson was a 197-pound outside linebacker recruit and is now a 263-pound starter for the Chicago Bears. Tyler Smith became an all-conference lineman as a redshirt freshman and sophomore and recently declared for the draft.
When former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery was hired as Tulsa’s head coach in 2015, it was easy to assume any success would come from offensive prowess. Instead, he and his staff have become some of the more reliable talent identifiers and developers in the country, particularly in the trenches. The defense has been a top-50-caliber unit for the past three years.
The Golden Hurricane nearly won the AAC in 2020, and after a 3-6 start this past season, they surged down the stretch, winning four straight and rising from 85th to 61st in SP+.
The unfortunate key to winning with identification and development: You have to keep identifying and developing. Tulsa must replace four offensive line starters (including Smith) and five of the eight defensive linemen who saw 200-plus snaps (including Player). They still boast all-conference-caliber performers in center Gerard Wheeler and defensive end Anthony Goodlow, and a few power-conference transfers could help stem the tide, but there are a lot of questions in what is typically a Tulsa strength. And this says nothing of the loss of running back Shamari Brooks, leading receiver Josh Johnson and cornerback Travon Fuller, among others.
There are plenty of veterans here — quarterback Davis Brin, receivers JuanCarlos Santana and Keylon Stokes, Wheeler and Goodlow — but depth could be an issue unless another young batch of future developmental stars emerges. Tulsa has a track record, but it has to keep proving itself in this regard.
Can Niu and Navy turn things back around? Ken Niumatalolo took the Navy program to a level unseen since Roger Staubach was the quarterback. After a long run of eight- or nine-win seasons, the Midshipmen won 10 games in 2009, nine in 2010 and 2013 and then 11 in 2015, their first season in the AAC. There was a predictable drop-off thereafter, as star quarterback Keenan Reynolds graduated and rival Army began to rise, but after falling to 3-10 in 2018, they bounced back to 11-2 in 2019. Quarterback Malcolm Perry rushed for 2,017 yards, the defense leaped from 114th to 53rd in defensive SP+ under new coordinator Brian Newberry, and all seemed well.
Navy is 7-15 since 2019. When the Midshipmen plummeted to 3-7 and 97th in SP+ in 2020, Niumatalolo blamed himself, citing a change in the physicality of practices due to COVID-19. But as practice returned to normal in 2021, Navy slipped further, to 102nd. The Middies were 18th in offensive SP+ in 2019 and 115th in 2021. They have cycled through a number of quarterbacks to replace Perry, and none have thrived. The defense still punches above its weight but was ranked only 75th last year, not good enough to overcome a collapsing offense.
Have opponents finally solved the triple option? That Air Force and Army won a combined 19 games last year suggests not. But a drop in talent at Navy has been apparent, and while quarterback Tai Lavatai returns, he struggled for much of 2021, and nearly his entire supporting cast is gone. Maybe new starters provide more upside, but they certainly won’t have experience. Newberry’s defense loses star linebacker Diego Fagot but returns quite a few key players. It could be a bright spot again, but unfortunately there’s no immediate reason to assume Navy will remember how to score points in 2022.
When might USF or Temple have a pulse again? Temple won 20 games and an AAC title under Matt Rhule in 2015-16 and held on to win either seven or eight games in the three years following Rhule’s departure. USF won 11 games in 2016 under Willie Taggart, then 10 under successor Charlie Strong. We know these programs can play at a high level because we’ve seen it in recent memory. But USF fired Strong after a 4-8 campaign in 2019, and successor (and former Dabo Swinney protege) Jeff Scott is a ghastly 3-18 in his first two seasons. The collapse couldn’t have come at a worse time either — while rival UCF will soon leave for the Big 12, USF did not receive an invitation.
After a run of successful head-coaching hires, Temple finally made a misstep with Rod Carey, its second hire of the 2018-19 coaching carousel after Manny Diaz left for the Miami job after just a couple of weeks. Carey went 8-5 in 2019 but fell to 4-15 in 2020-21. The Owls were 52nd in SP+ in 2019 and 121st last fall.
Both programs seem to have upside on their rosters. Scott’s quarterback of choice, Timmy McClain, made quite a few big plays with both his passing arm and legs (and plenty of dreadful plays, too) as a freshman, and Scott is bringing in a load of high-upside transfers, including receivers Khafre Brown (North Carolina) and Ajou Ajou (Clemson). In Philadelphia, Temple has potential stars in both trenches, plus linebacker George Reid and corners Cameron Ruiz and Keyshawn Paul. New head coach Stan Drayton brought in veteran coordinators — Danny Langsdorf (formerly of Nebraska and Oregon State) on offense, D.J. Eliot (most recently of Kansas and Colorado) on defense — and Eliot in particular doesn’t inherit an empty cupboard. Still, with the depths to which both of these programs sunk in 2021, it’s hard to see a quick road back to success in a tough conference.
My 10 favorite players
QB Holton Ahlers, ECU. Ahlers has thrown for 10,225 yards and 69 touchdowns in four seasons and is taking advantage of his extra year of eligibility to potentially plant himself pretty high on the career passing yardage chart.
RB Tyjae Spears, Tulane. If Spears’ late-2021 explosion is any indication, Tulane’s offense could be just fine in 2022: He averaged 132 yards and 7.3 yards per carry in his last five games.
RB Keaton Mitchell, ECU. His production trailed off down the stretch, but a three-game run of 482 yards (11.5 per carry) and four TDs against Marshall, Charleston Southern and Tulane was a reminder of his hellacious upside.
WR Xavier Weaver, USF. If USF made a big play in 2021, it probably came from the 6-1 Weaver, who gained 715 yards from just 41 receptions (17.4 per catch) and averaged more than 3 yards per route run.
C Sincere Haynesworth, Tulane. A 6-1, 305-pound road grader, Haynesworth is one of three Tulane linemen who have earned at least honorable mention all-AAC honors over the past two years.
DE Layton Jordan, Temple. In just 19 snaps per game, Jordan finished the season with eight tackles for loss, eight run stuffs and an excellent 13% pressure rate. He could absolutely thrive in a starting role this season.
NG Clay Cromwell, Navy. The Navy run defense could remain efficient despite the loss of Diego Fagot, and the 292-pound Cromwell’s exploits up front (eight TFLs, eight run stuffs) could be the major reason why.
LB Antonio Grier, USF. In just 67 pass rush attempts last season, Grier recorded three sacks and 14 pressures. If USF can generate more blitzing opportunities in 2022, Grier could end up with all-conference numbers.
CB Cameron Ruiz, Temple. Ruiz allowed just an 8.1 QBR with four pass breakups as the primary coverage man last season. If Temple could actually force opponents to pass more, he could become a star.
CB Tyon Davis, Tulsa. A willing run defender, the senior from Oklahoma City also broke up 10 passes in his first season as a starter. The Golden Hurricane are dealing with turnover in the secondary, but he’s a reliable player.
Anniversaries
In 1982, 40 years ago, Tulsa went 10-1, its first 10-win season in 40 years. Led by a prolific run game — Ken Lacy and Michael Gunter combined for 2,561 yards and 23 touchdowns — John Cooper’s Golden Hurricane beat Oklahoma State and Kansas, lost only to No. 13 Arkansas and swept through the Missouri Valley. Their success led to Cooper taking the Arizona State job in 1985 and helped to solidify the school’s FBS (then 1-A) stature. The MVC stopped sponsoring football, and its other former members dropped to 1-AA (or, in Wichita State’s case, dropped football altogether), but Tulsa soldiered on and, after a decade as an independent, joined the WAC in the late 1990s.
In 1997, 25 years ago, Tommy Bowden took over as Tulane’s head coach. The Green Wave hadn’t enjoyed a winning season in 16 years, but coordinator Rich Rodriguez’s innovative spread offense found a lovely muse in quarterback Shaun King. Tulane averaged 34 points per game and jumped to 7-4, then leaped to 12-0 in 1998, averaging 45 points per game and finishing seventh in the AP poll. It was their first top-10 finish since 1939 and one of only two ever.
In 2002, 20 years ago, Paul Johnson took over as Navy’s head coach. The Midshipmen had gone just 1-20 in the previous two seasons and would go 2-10 in Johnson’s first year. But his triple-option principles quickly took hold. Navy would win at least eight games for 13 of the next 14 seasons under first Johnson and then Ken Niumatalolo.
In 2007, 15 years ago, USF rose to No. 2. Jim Leavitt’s Bulls, in their eighth season in FBS and third in the Big East, scored wins over both No. 17 Auburn and No. 5 West Virginia during a 6-0 start, but 2007 was the worst year ever to rank second: The No. 2 team lost seven times in the final nine weeks of the season. USF fell at Rutgers 30-27, then lost tight games to both UConn and Cincinnati on its way to an excellent but disappointing 9-4 finish.
Also in 2007: Chris Johnson broke out. A role player for most of three seasons at ECU, Johnson exploded for 1,951 rushing and receiving yards and 23 touchdowns as the Pirates overcame a 1-3 start to finish 8-5. In the Hawai’i Bowl, he gained 255 yards from scrimmage and scored twice as ECU beat No. 24 Boise State 41-38.
Also in 2007: Temple joined the MAC. It was step one of a long-term rehabilitation plan for the program. Booted from the Big East for woeful play — just 1.9 FBS wins per season in 14 years in the conference — the Owls went 1-22 during two years of independence but slowly made headway under Al Golden in the MAC. They won 26 games from 2009 to ’11, then rejoined the Big East before it morphed into the AAC. Under Matt Rhule, they went 20-8 in 2015-16, spending part of both seasons ranked. From maybe the worst FBS program, they became a legitimately strong and exciting mid-major. Let’s see if they can get back to that in the coming years.