Trade candidate tiers: Players most likely to move before Opening Day — and best fits

Forget a free-agent frenzy, the past few days have felt more like the MLB trade deadline. Major deals have sent Chris Bassitt to the Mets, Sonny Gray, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela to the Twins, Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners and now Matt Olson to the Braves with a fresh eight-year contract.

There could be even more trade action before spring training games kick off later this week, especially if the A’s and Reds continue to deal away more of their arbitration-eligible players.

We identify the big names to watch and the teams who could land a new star in a spring blockbuster.

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Matt Chapman

Best matches: Rays, Phillies, Blue Jays, Mariners

Chapman remains a plus-plus defender at third base, but there is a big downward trend in his batting average: .278 in 2018, then .249, .232 and .210 in 2021 when he struck out over 200 times. Since July 24, 2019, Chapman has hit .210/.306/.431 in 245 games; the defense and power still make him a valuable player, but he needs to improve his contact rate to become a top-10 MVP candidate like he was in 2018 and 2019.

The Phillies are a match in need (center fielder Ramon Laureano would be another match if the A’s want to swing a megadeal), but their farm system is a little thin to acquire Chapman or Laureano, let alone both. The Rays are an intriguing possibility. We know they love defense and they don’t shy away from Three True Outcomes players like Chapman.

Prospects/players to pursue: The overall package should be comparable to the Olson trade, as Chapman’s WAR projections are about a half-win lower and he’s a year older, with the same two years of control.

From Tampa Bay, you could headline it with a big leaguer like Austin Meadows (who is more valuable in a trade than any player in the Olson or Joey Gallo deals), then pick a couple 45 FV (future value) area players (let’s say 2B Jonathan Aranda and 3B Austin Shenton) or one or two 40 FV players (let’s say RF Diego Infante). If the headliner is a true prospect, SS Greg Jones, 3B Curtis Mead, RHP Taj Bradley, RHP Seth Johnson and 2B Xavier Edwards are all on the tier of the two top players in the Olson package (Langeliers and Pache).

Frankie Montas/Sean Manaea

Best matches: Twins, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers

Manaea and Montas both project as solid mid-rotation starters with more durability than most teams get from those slots — Manaea pitched 179⅓ innings last year and Montas 187. Getting Montas will take more in return with the extra year of team control and the slightly better results in 2021 (13-9, 3.37 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 207 strikeouts). Montas pitches off his 96-mph fastball (he threw his four-seamer and sinker 58% of the time), with a splitter and slider his go-to strikeout weapons.

Manaea is an old-school lefty: low 90s sinker, curveball and changeup. His strikeout rate improved from 16.5% in his last full season in 2018 (he was injured most of 2019) to 25.7%, so if he can maintain that strikeout rate he should be in line for another solid season.

The Twins are the obvious trade candidate here after adding Gray but still needing another starter. AL West rivals in Texas, Seattle and Anaheim could all use more rotation help, but those intradivision trades are rare. The Dodgers are the wild card here as they await news on Trevor Bauer‘s eligibility and David Price‘s reliability after he pitched mostly in relief in 2021 with mixed results (4.03 ERA/4.23 FIP).

Prospects/players to pursue: Manaea is almost three years younger than Bassitt and is left-handed, but has the same one year of control to offer and similar projections for the 2022 season. I’d expect that package to be headlined by a player in the 101-to-200 prospect range overall, like J.T. Ginn in the Bassitt trade. Minnesota could still use another starter and has some players in that tier, including RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, SS Noah Miller and RF Matt Wallner.

Montas comes with two years of control, like recently dealt righty Gray but is otherwise pretty different. Montas is in the arbitration system, so he’ll make almost $10 million less over those two years while being over three years younger than Gray. Overall, I’d expect a similar package, headlined by a player in the top half of that 101-to-200 range. One of the potential targeting teams is the Rangers and they have a number of players in that tier: 2B Ezequiel Duran, 2B Justin Foscue, 1B Dustin Harris, RHP Owen White and 2B Josh Smith.

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Rays in arbitration: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow

Austin Meadows

Best matches: A’s, Padres, Dodgers

Speaking of the A’s and Rays, Kevin Kiermaier told reporters Sunday that the Rays’ brass assured him that no trade was brewing. The Rays remain overloaded with outfielders, however, with Meadows, Randy Arozarena, Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips and rookies Josh Lowe and Vidal Brujan. The Rays may prefer to keep Kiermaier’s defense (and $12.1 million salary) and create playing time for Lowe, which brings us to a possible Chapman/Meadows trade (with more going back to the A’s).

Prospects/players to pursue: It feels like Meadows will only be on the table for a difference-maker in the lineup, so I tend to think Chapman is the only guy available who could get the Rays to deal him.

Tyler Glasnow

Best matches: Any team willing to take a risk with the potential for big reward

Glasnow has two years of team control left, but is coming off Tommy John surgery in August 2021 that could put him out for all of 2022. Do the Rays want to pay an estimated $5.5 million for someone who may not pitch for them? We’ve seen teams sign free agents coming off TJ surgery to two-year contracts, banking on the second season. Glasnow could be trade bait for a team looking for a high-upside starter for 2023.

Prospects/players to pursue: Since the Rays are so efficient at spending money, if they trade a good player making more than the minimum, they’re usually looking to restart that six-plus years of team control clock ASAP (i.e. by getting a good prospect in the upper minors) and then reinvest that money in the short term on a veteran on a one-year deal.

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Best matches: Any 2022 contender

The Reds already sent Gray to the Twins and Winker and Suarez to the Mariners, signaling they’re scaling back/rebuilding/retooling despite going 83-79 in 2021 — basically sending Reds fans into a Twitter fury over the past few days.

Maybe they stop now, but Castillo and Mahle have been rumored as available since before the lockout, and top prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo could join the rotation to replace them. Both Castillo and Mahle are under control for two more seasons, with Castillo set to earn about $8 million in 2022 and Mahle $5 million, making both very attractive to any team looking for starting pitching — which means pretty much every team.

Castillo frustrates with his inconsistency, but he does have a 3.61 ERA over the past three seasons pitching in a tough park. Mahle had a breakout in 2021, going 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA over 33 starts and 180 innings with good peripherals (plus a 2.30 ERA on the road).

Prospects/players to pursue: This one is hard to pin down with a wide swath of players available for trade (salary dumps, high-leverage reliever, near-ace, valuable starter) and almost no limit to the teams that could be seriously interested. Castillo has two years of control and three to four WAR 2022 projections such as Olson and Chapman — so the price for Castillo in a trade should be in the same ballpark, while the other players would come in much smaller deals.

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Best matches for Hosmer: Rangers, Blue Jays

Best matches for Myers: Rangers, Phillies, Rockies

It seems likely one of these gets done to give A.J. Preller some breathing room — especially since he may need a shortstop to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first three months of the season after the revelation of Tatis’ broken wrist.

Hosmer is coming off a 1.0-WAR season and is signed for four more seasons — $20 million in 2022, then $13 million in 2023 to 2025. He has little trade value as a mediocre-hitting, mediocre-fielding first baseman and the Padres would have to include some money or prospects in a deal. Myers will make $22.5 million in the final year of his deal and is coming off a 0.8-WAR season. Good luck to Preller in dealing either player.

Prospects/players to pursue: It’s hard to project which teams and in what sort of deal structure these two could get moved. Preller could attach a prospect to one of them to get a team to take the contract, or pay down some portion of the contract for a minimal return. This could be with literally any of the 29 other clubs as this sort of deal can be attractive to rebuilding clubs to spend short-term payroll to get a young player in return immediately, rather than gamble a free-agent signing will be tradeable in three months. Either way, Preller will want to move as much of these contracts as possible to make more upgrades.

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Best matches: Phillies, Tigers, Padres

The Joe Kelly signing (on top of Kendall Graveman before the lockout) makes it even more likely that the White Sox deal Kimbrel. The problem: Kimbrel will make $16 million and his recent track record of success is basically half a season in 2021. He struggled in 2019, struggled in 2020 and after three-plus dominant months with the Cubs in 2021, struggled after his trade to the White Sox (5.09 ERA, five home runs in 23 innings).

Among the contenders who might look to hope for first-half Kimbrel: the Phillies (Corey Knebel/Jose Alvarado), Tigers (Michael Fulmer) or Padres (Emilio Pagan? Drew Pomeranz?).

Prospects/players to pursue: Kimbrel was acquired for Nick Madrigal, so a solid young big leaguer seems like a comparable deal, but losing one playoff run worth of value since being traded by the Cubs means Kimbrel’s trade value is now lower. I’d imagine he’ll fetch a prospect in the 75 to 150 area of my overall rankings, depending on how many motivated teams are circling. I think the White Sox would prefer to get a player close to the big leagues, but some of the prospects in this range for the above teams are top two-round picks from last year’s draft. Phillies C Logan O’Hoppe could be a fit for both sides.

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Young standouts on rebuilding teams: Bryan Reynolds (Pirates), Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks)

Best matches: Reynolds: Mariners, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Rangers

Marte: Similar teams, although he was really bad in CF last year. As 2B: Cardinals

Either trade here is a long shot as you’re looking for a team that is willing to overpay for an underpaid star. Reynolds quietly finished eighth among NL position players in WAR after hitting .302/.390/.522. He hits for average (we’ll ignore his COVID numbers from 2020), hits for power (67 extra-base hits), draws walks, doesn’t strike out excessively and his Statcast defensive metrics were outstanding (96th percentile). He’s under team control through 2025, so he would cost a ton in prospect wealth. Marte is signed to a team-friendly deal that pays him $8 million in 2022 with team options of $10 and $12 million in 2023 and 2024. His defensive metrics in center field were terrible in 2021, so he may fit better at a corner position or a return to second base.

Prospects/players to pursue: Basically any team that’s near its payroll ceiling and wants to upgrade its lineup and has some prospect surplus to deal from could justify taking the plunge here. That said, Reynolds (four) and Marte (three) come with more years of club control — Olson and Chapman both offer two — and Reynolds’ and Marte’s 2022 projections are in the same ballpark as Olson and Chapman. I don’t think they’re quite as good, but you could argue that there’s more value in trade, or at least in the same area, so it would start with a top-100 prospect and probably need to include another player close to that, along with another solid young player or two, as neither team is itching to move either player.