Who will be the Mac Jones of the 2021 college football season?

I express a lot of opinions on the internet, which inevitably means that I’m wrong on the internet quite a bit. (Anyone who read my 20th-century quarterback rankings piece recently and isn’t an Oklahoma fan probably agrees with this.)

However, sometimes I’m right, and I should celebrate that. So allow me to say, I TRIED TO TELL YOU ABOUT MAC JONES. In a small sample size late in 2019, Jones was so much better than he was given credit for; in a larger sample in 2020, all he did was lead the country in Total QBR, finish third in the Heisman voting and lead the best Alabama offense — maybe the best Alabama team — ever. He’ll likely become a first-round draft pick in a few more weeks. Did he have an amazing supporting cast around him? Of course. But he steered the Bama ship impeccably.

So who’s the next Mac Jones?

We’re going to attack that question in a few different ways. First, we’re going to look at QBs who thrived, perhaps under the radar, late in the 2020 season. Then we’re going to look at new starting quarterbacks who made a decent impression in small sample sizes. Finally, we’re going to look beyond the QB position and form a full lineup of new starters with exciting samples of work.

2020’s late-season surges

Joe Burrow’s first season as LSU’s starting quarterback in 2018 was bumpy, but he surged late in the year, ranking fourth in Total QBR over his last four games with a 67% completion rate. He torched UCF for 394 yards and four scores in the Fiesta Bowl. LSU’s full embrace of something more spread-like in 2019 obviously worked wonders, but he was already beginning to flash high upside before that.

Similarly, over his last four games in 2019, Jones ranked third in Total QBR. His interceptions against Auburn were costly, but those were almost the only mistakes he had made.

Late-season surges aren’t guarantees of success; after all, one of the quarterbacks ahead of Burrow in late 2018 was Georgia’s Jake Fromm, and while Kentucky’s Lynn Bowden (second in QBR late in 2019) was really fun, it’s safe to guess he probably wouldn’t have been a Heisman contender had he returned to play QB in 2020.

It might be interesting, however, to at least look at which QBs were playing the best at the end of 2020’s odd season.

Top 10 in 2020 Total QBR after Nov. 20 (min. 3 games):

1. Mac Jones, Alabama (96.8)
2. Zach Wilson, BYU (89.8)
3. JT Daniels, Georgia (89.1)
4. Brock Purdy, Iowa State (88.1)
5. Max Duggan, TCU (87.9)
6. Logan Bonner, Arkansas State (87.4)
7. Justin Fields, Ohio State (86.5)
8. Jayden Daniels, Arizona State (86.3)
9. Matt Corral, Ole Miss (86.2)
10. Sam Howell, UNC (84.7)

Some of these guys were good all season — Jones was first in full-season QBR, Fields second, Corral third, Wilson fourth, ASU’s Daniels seventh (with his tiny four-game sample), Howell 14th, Purdy 15th.

That leaves three other intriguing names, however: JT Daniels, Duggan and Bonner.

JT Daniels, Georgia

Long marked for greatness, Daniels is the most obvious successor in the Burrow-Jones, “late-season brilliance to full-season dominance” line.

Daniels held his own as a freshman at USC, throwing for 2,672 yards despite what we’ll politely call schematic issues; when coach Clay Helton brought in coordinator Graham Harrell to address said issues, it was assumed that Daniels would be the beneficiary. Instead, he tore his ACL in the first game of 2019, and with Kedon Slovis thriving in his absence, he transferred to Georgia.

Daniels’ recovery featured some setbacks, and when Stetson Bennett briefly flashed some early-season upside, coach Kirby Smart stuck with him for a while. But after frustrating losses to Alabama and Florida, Smart made a change. Daniels came in, and we got to see what offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense could truly do.

Daniels was able to stretch the field in ways that Bennett could not. While Bennett and D’Wan Mathis combined to complete just nine of 34 passes 20+ yards downfield, Daniels attempted nearly as many such passes in his four games (27) while completing 12 of them for 472 yards and four touchdowns. Raw QBR on these passes: Daniels 98.1, Bennett 62.1, Mathis 3.4.

While the Dawgs’ No. 1 receiver, George Pickens, was the primary beneficiary of this sudden deep-ball prowess, Daniels spread the ball around. Fellow wideouts Jermaine Burton, Arian Smith, Demetris Robertson and Kearis Jackson all caught at least one deep ball over the last four games, as did tantalizing freshman tight end Darnell Washington.

This variety and upside came in handy in the Peach Bowl. Cincinnati’s brilliant defense was able to frustrate Daniels at times, picking him off once, sacking him three times and limiting him primarily to short passes over the middle while containing a solid Georgia run game. But Daniels was still able to complete a 55-yard bomb to Pickens, a 51-yarder to Smith and a 38-yarder to Washington. The latter two completions set up 10 of Georgia’s 24 points in a three-point win. Rendered mostly inefficient, UGA leaned on raw explosiveness to get the victory. Only a few teams have the tools to do that consistently, but the Dawgs are one of them.

Daniels brings back virtually his entire skill corps — last year’s top eight receiving targets, plus five running backs who combined for 2,142 rushing and receiving yards. There are two departures up front, including all-SEC guard Ben Cleveland, but tackles Jamaree Salyer and Warren McClendon are strong anchors.

After years of otherworldly recruiting, it’s not hard to talk yourself into Georgia finally figuring everything out offensively. If you’re saying, “Sure, but we’ve been down this road before with Georgia,” you’re right, of course. But we said it for years about LSU, too, and then, *poof*, it all suddenly clicked.

Max Duggan, TCU

Duggan’s time at TCU has been a roller coaster. He started as a freshman in 2019 and, well, played like a freshman: three games with a passer rating over 165, five under 100, including three of the last four games as he battled a finger injury. Then, last August, doctors detected a heart abnormality, and he was ruled out indefinitely … only to be cleared in September and play in every 2020 game. He was brilliant in a season-opening shootout loss to Iowa State, but produced a sketchy 113.7 passer rating over the next six games, and TCU was held to 14 or fewer points three times.

Freshmen came to the rescue late in the year. Over the last three games, running backs Zach Evans and Darwin Barlow combined for 49 carries, 388 yards and four touchdowns, and Duggan started heaving the ball deep to another freshman, receiver Quentin Johnson, with great effect. Johnson caught five passes (including three bombs) for 247 yards, and despite Duggan completing only 50% of his passes, TCU averaged 47 points per game in wins over Kansas, Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech to salvage a 6-4 record.

As with so many other teams in 2021, TCU returns a huge percentage of last year’s production: Duggan (who also posted 652 non-sack rushing yards), Evans, Barlow, Johnson and every other wideout who caught at least five passes, etc. The line is experienced, too, and while I don’t see Duggan as a serious Burrow/Jones candidate, TCU’s run game should be dynamite, and both Evans and Johnson are former blue-chippers with sustainable upside.

TCU has averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 75th over the last three years, which has rendered the Frogs an 18-17 team. The defense will be good as always, and maybe now there are signs of an offensive rebound?

Logan Bonner, Utah State

When Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson moved on to take the Utah State job this winter, Bonner followed as a graduate transfer. The move made sense for three reasons: He knows what Anderson wants to do offensively, it looks pretty good on him, and ASU also had Layne Hatcher. Hatcher and Bonner split time in 2020, with Hatcher looking the better of the two a good portion of the season.

At USU, with sophomore Andrew Peasley as the only other QB with experience, the route to a starting job is clearer.

Bonner’s late-season success was driven primarily by two games: against Texas State and South Alabama, he completed 28 of 42 passes for 391 yards and six touchdowns. He ceded the floor to an en fuego Hatcher in the season finale against ULM.

Transfers will help immensely in a USU skill corps that is dealing with quite a bit of turnover. Arkansas State slot man extraordinaire Brandon Bowling will give Bonner a familiar face, while Oregon State running back Calvin Tyler Jr. is an agile return-man type. If 6-foot-6 sophomore receiver Justin McGriff can generate more consistency, and if Bonner’s late-season surge wasn’t a mirage, the Aggies might be a decent bounce-back candidate out west. After plummeting from 22nd to 111th in offensive SP+ in just two seasons, any improvement will be welcomed.

New starters who could thrive

Based solely on what we’ve seen on the field — so, not including players like Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s Jack Miller III, who will probably be good but showed either little or nothing in 2020 — here’s a handful of new 2021 starters we should maybe be excited about.

D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson

The true freshman was thrown into the deep end when Trevor Lawrence tested positive for the coronavirus and missed midseason games against Boston College and Notre Dame. The Tigers nearly lost the first game and did lose the second, but it was hard to blame Uiagalelei much for that. For the season, he completed 67% of his passes, avoided sacks and interceptions and scrambled effectively at times.

He was a bit more conservative than Lawrence in his decision-making, but his QBR against man defense (92.9) was better than Lawrence’s (72.7), and he got worthwhile experience.

Casey Thompson, Texas

Thompson will have to outmaneuver blue-chip freshman Hudson Card for new head coach Steve Sarkisian’s affection, but when Sam Ehlinger got hurt in the Alamo Bowl against Colorado, Thompson made an impression: He completed eight of 10 passes for 170 yards and four touchdowns while rushing three times (not including one sack) for 24 yards.

Three of those completions went to presumptive No. 1 WR Joshua Moore, but he also connected with freshman Kelvontay Dixon for a 73-yard bomb to put the game away. He looked really good.

Emory Jones, Florida

Coach Dan Mullen attempted to get Jones involved at times in 2020, primarily with his legs — he ended up gaining 217 yards on 32 carries, and 221 yards on 32 passes.

He’ll have to beat out second-time freshman Anthony Richardson, incoming freshmen Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Jalen Kitna, but if he wins the job, he could present a conundrum for defenses. He produced a solid 81.4 QBR against zone defenses, he’s excellent for the run game, and while he struggled against man, turning your back on him to follow receivers down the field could be one heck of a rushing opportunity.

Jack Coan, Notre Dame

Coan was ninth in Total QBR over the final weeks of 2019 while playing for Wisconsin. In his final two games of the regular season, easy wins over Purdue and 10th-ranked Minnesota, Coan completed 30 of 41 passes for 483 yards, four touchdowns and one pick. The efficiency trailed off a bit against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and Oregon in the Rose Bowl, but the Buckeyes and Ducks ranked second and eighth, respectively, in defensive SP+ that season.

Coan got hurt in 2020, lost his job to Graham Mertz and transferred. If he can fend off second-year freshman Drew Pyne and incoming blue-chipper Tyler Buchner, he could establish a high level of play for the Irish in the fall. At worst, he’ll establish a pretty high bar for either Pyne or Buchner.

Davis Brin or Seth Boomer, Tulsa

In Zach Smith’s final season as starting QB, the Golden Hurricane rose to 68th in offensive SP+. Combined with an excellent defense, that was good enough to drive a 6-1 start and nearly upset Cincinnati in the AAC Championship. You’ll forgive TU fans if they aren’t too worried about losing Smith, though. In Boomer, they’ve got another veteran, one who started a large portion of 2018 and looked sporadically good. In Brin, they’ve got a guy who made one of the best cameos you’ll ever see. Against Tulane last season, both Smith and Boomer got hurt, and Brin led a big comeback by throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns in the second half.

Tulsa has to replace one of the best players in college football in outside linebacker Zaven Collins but should return around nine defensive starters and nearly every receiver and offensive lineman. TU’s improvement could continue.

Anthony Brown, Oregon

As returns diminished for starter Tyler Shough late in 2020, offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead turned to Brown. The former Boston College starter threw two short-yardage touchdowns in the Ducks’ Pac-12 championship game upset of USC, then rushed for two touchdowns against Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl. His raw QBR of 84.7 topped Shough’s 74.7, and Shough transferred to Texas Tech in the offseason.

(Tech had itself lost starting quarterback Alan Bowman to Michigan, which had lost a couple of QBs to the transfer portal as well. The cirrrrrrrrcle of liiiiiiiiiife…)

If Brown can beat out mega-blue-chipper Ty Thompson and 2020 four-stars Robby Ashford and Jay Butterfield — no easy task — it will be interesting to see how he is utilized. He’s a sturdy runner whose passer rating improved each year at Boston College and topped 150 last season. Does he have enough versatility to lead what could be a major Oregon charge in 2021?

Other potential new starting quarterbacks who enter 2021 with a decent, if small, track record: NC State’s Devin Leary, Kentucky’s Will Levis (via Penn State), Michigan’s Alan Bowman (via Texas Tech) or Cade McNamara, Memphis’s three-headed transfer QB (Arizona’s Grant Gunnell, Austin Peay’s Jeremiah Oatsvall, LSU’s Peter Parrish), SMU’s Tanner Mordecai (via OU), Stanford’s Jack West or Tanner McKee, Toledo’s Carter Bradley.

A full lineup of potential breakout stars

Technically, a Mac Jones-type doesn’t have to be a quarterback — he could be any small-sample all-star stepping into a bigger role. So, QB position aside, here’s an entire lineup of potential Joneses.

Offense

• Running back: Jerome Ford (Cincinnati). Made his presence known with a long touchdown against Georgia.

• Running back: Reese White (Coastal Carolina). Should be the primary beneficiary of Coastal’s fun, efficient run game.

• Wide receiver: Kayshon Boutte (LSU). Announced his arrival by catching 27 passes for 527 yards (!!) in the last three games of his freshman year.

• Wide receiver: Drake London (USC). An angry, physical after-the-catch guy and was USC’s scariest receiver even as its No. 3 target.

• Wide receiver: Corey Rucker (Arkansas State). Caught seven passes for 123 yards in ASU’s first 10 games last year … and then caught nine for 310 and four touchdowns in the finale against ULM.

• Tight end: Jahleel Billingsley (Alabama). Caught 17 of his 18 passes in the Tide’s last seven games and could benefit significantly from Bama’s turnover at WR.

• Tight end: Darnell Washington (Georgia). Terrifying in the open field at 6-7, 260 pounds, and was criminally underused in 2020.

• Offensive linemen: Logan Brown (Wisconsin), Andrew Kristofic (Notre Dame), Tommy Brown (Alabama), Harris LaChance (BYU) and Xavier Truss (Georgia). All are potential replacements for All-Americans (or, in Truss’ case, an All-SECer), and all looked the part, albeit in a total of 561 snaps between them.

Defense

• Defensive end: Jahfari Harvey or Chantz Williams (Miami). It seems the cupboard is always full of exciting DEs at The U; Harvey and Williams combined for a 10% pressure rate and eight forced incompletions in limited opportunities.

• Defensive end: John Morgan or Dayon Hayes (Pitt). Losing Patrick Jones II and Rashad Weaver hurts, but these two combined for a 16% pressure rate and seven forced INCs as backups.

• Defensive tackle: Byron Young (Alabama). Got a backup’s number of snaps but led Alabama in run stops. A good sign.

• Linebacker: Adam Anderson (Georgia). An increasingly dangerous pass-rush specialist over three years, Anderson has one last chance to break through into the heavy rotation.

• Linebacker: Marist Liufau (Notre Dame). Generated pressure on 22% of his pass rushes last year and looked solid dropping into coverage. Could be a solid replacement for Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

• Linebacker: Andre White Jr. (Texas A&M). Played in only 25 snaps per game but recorded a 26% pressure rate rushing the passer, picked off a pass and broke up three others.

• Cornerback: Brian Branch (Alabama). Played in 23 snaps per game but still picked off two passes with seven breakups. He’s going to be a handful.

• Cornerback Cornelius Dyson (Tulane). Allowed a QBR of just 35.4 and forced an incompletion or interception 30% of the time. As a freshman!

• Safety: Max Williams (USC). Losing Talanoa Hufanga is huge, but Williams allowed a QBR of 3.0 in 17 passes as primary coverage man while generating a 30% pressure rate in 20 pass rushes.

• Safety: Noah Daniels (TCU). Okay, so he’s more of a safety-sized cornerback; he’d be great in either role. He was rampant before injury, breaking up five passes while forcing two incompletions in six pass rush attempts.