During the conference realignment run of the early 2010s, Conference USA attempted to assert its power by adding a number of Sun Belt programs to its roster: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas and Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt responded by adding football programs. Georgia Southern found quick success, while Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina have become two of the most celebrated programs in the Group of Five.
A decade after that round of realignment, the Sun Belt got to assert power in its own way. In addition to beating C-USA for FCS powerhouse James Madison, it also added C-USA members Southern Miss, Marshall and Old Dominion. The pluckee has become the plucker.
The effects of this power move will be felt more in the Sun Belt East, where JMU, Marshall and ODU will reside. It might be the best division in the Group of Five this season. But first, let’s talk about the West. Southern Miss joins the fray, while a thankful Troy joins from the East, and the overriding storyline is pretty clear: Can anyone knock off the champs?
Louisiana has won four straight West crowns, and South Alabama could serve as a sleeper because of a high-potential defense, while the biggest threat to Ragin’ Cajun dominance might come from one of two underachieving newcomers.
Let’s preview the Sun Belt West.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 131 FBS teams. The previews will include 2021 breakdowns, 2022 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: MWC West | MWC Mountain | AAC (No. 6-11) | AAC (No. 1-5) | MAC East | MAC West
2021 recap
Billy Napier’s final Louisiana team rolled to the Sun Belt title last fall, losing to Texas in the season opener and never again. The Cajuns were 8-0 in regular-season Sun Belt play, and no one else in the West was over .500; they had clinched the division by Nov. 4.
(Credit the West also-rans, at least, for putting up a fight head-to-head. The Cajuns walloped Texas State, 45-0, but beat South Alabama, Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe by a combined eight points.)
Elsewhere, 2021 was primarily about the future. South Alabama played good defense for a while under first-year head coach Kane Wommack, Arkansas State and ULM were far more competitive in the second half of Butch Jones’ and Terry Bowden’s respective first seasons, and Texas State … well, they were entertaining, at least, playing in seven games decided by one score. Second-year head man Jake Spavital’s “signing only transfers” strategy didn’t really make the Bobcats better, but at least they weren’t much worse.
2022 projections
The West had only one top-90 team last season, and despite the addition of Troy and Southern Miss, projections suggest much of the same in 2022. Louisiana has a lot of production to replace (not to mention an incredibly successful head coach) and is projected to regress a decent amount, but we’ll see if anyone can rise to the challenge and prevent the Cajuns from winning a fifth straight West crown.
Burning questions
Was a continuity move right for Louisiana? You can’t really blame administrators for wanting to keep the party rolling in Lafayette. When Napier left for Florida after four intensely successful seasons — they won four West crowns and went 34-5 over his final three years — the school replaced him with 36-year-old offensive co-coordinator Michael Desormeaux.
Desormeaux is as Louisiana as it gets: He was an all-conference quarterback for the Cajuns, he began his coaching career at local high schools and at the collegiate level he has coached only for UL, starting as running backs coach in 2016. He was named interim head coach both before and after Napier’s tenure.
Desormeaux has been groomed for this role; now we’ll find out if he’s ready. He named former Napier assistants in both coordinator roles (Tim Leger on offense, LaMar Morgan on defense), and this familiar staff will lead a reasonably unfamiliar roster. The Cajuns have to replace starting quarterback Levi Lewis, two of three main running backs, their most frequently targeted receiver and, perhaps most importantly for UL’s recent identity, four of five starters on the offensive line, all of whom earned all-conference plaudits.
Strong recruiting has produced plenty of potential stars — running back Chris Smith, receivers Peter LeBlanc and Dontae Fleming, tight end Neal Johnson and guard AJ Gillie, among others. But a lot of players will be stepping into bigger roles, especially at quarterback, where recent backups Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge (and potentially former Maryland four-star recruit Lance Legendre) are battling to take over for Lewis.
There’s more continuity on defense, where a unit that ranked 26th in defensive SP+ returns 13 of 22 players who saw 200-plus snaps. End Andre Jones and tackle Zi’Yon Hill are strong up front, and corner Eric Garror is among the best in a division that has quite a few strong defensive backs. Still, the top three linebackers are gone, as is star corner Mekhi Garner. Louisiana might be vulnerable to a stiff challenge — if said challenge actually exists.
When might Troy stop underachieving? If Louisiana’s offense craters a bit and the Cajuns leave the door open for a challenger, on paper Troy might be the most likely candidate. Over the last three seasons, the Trojans have fielded two top-70 offenses, per SP+, and two top-70 defenses. They return almost everyone from a particularly strong 2021 defense, and narrow losses to Liberty, South Carolina and Coastal Carolina hinted at solid potential.
Of course, they had potential for the entire Chip Lindsey era, and they went just 5-7, 5-6 and 5-7; in response, Troy replaced Lindsey with Kentucky defensive co-coordinator Jon Sumrall, and he seems to have done a pretty good job of player retention out of the gate.
Former Army co-DC Shiel Wood inherits what really could be a hell of a defense. Ends Javon Solomon and Richard Jibunor and tackle Will Choloh combined for 34 tackles for loss, 22 sacks and 3 interceptions in 2021; linebacker Carlton Martial, meanwhile, was one of the Sun Belt’s best run disruptors and nickel TJ Harris combined 4.5 sacks with five run stuffs and strong pass coverage. This isn’t an incredibly big defense, but it’s speedy, aggressive and proven.
The offense is less proven. The Trojans went three-and-out 38% of the time last season (119th in FBS) and ranked 114th in offensive SP+. Most of its best players were freshmen or sophomores — quarterback Gunnar Watson, RBs Kimani Vidal and Jamontez Woods, slot men Tez Johnson and Jabre Barber, guard Jake Andrews — so there’s growth potential. But it might be slow growth following Troy’s worst offensive performance since 2005. It won’t take much improvement for Troy to contend in the West if the defense is as good as advertised, but we’ll see what former SMU and Arkansas offensive coordinator Joe Craddock can coax out of this unit.
Can South Alabama find an O to go with that D? Heading into November, the South Alabama defense was one of the most pleasant surprises in FBS. The Jags were eighth in success rate allowed, 14th in touchdowns allowed per drive and 19th in yards per play. They had played a mostly weak schedule to that point, but they also had held Louisiana to 20 points in a near-upset on Oct. 2. The offense seemed to be coming along too, averaging 33.5 points per game in its last four despite a makeshift line.
Things fell apart a bit from there. The Jaguars lost to Troy, then got pummeled by Appalachian State and Tennessee by a combined 91-21 before rallying to take Coastal the distance in a 27-21 loss. From 5-3, they finished 5-7 once increased schedule difficulty kicked in.
Still, if a coach’s first year is primarily about hinting at what’s to come, Kane Wommack’s first season in charge in Mobile was a success. South Alabama’s No. 82 defensive SP+ ranking was its best since 2014, and ranking 106th in offensive SP+ was still an improvement over the previous two seasons. An aggressive defense returns seven starters, plus two injured 2020 starters up front, and adds eight power-conference transfers (including three from Indiana, where Wommack coached before coming back to South Alabama last fall). Plus, two of its best players are sophomores: tackle Wy’Kevious Thomas (12 run stuffs in 2021) and safety Yam Banks (eight run stuffs plus quality coverage).
We’ll see what the offense can offer, however. Quarterback Jake Bentley is gone and will be replaced by either veteran Desmond Trotter or Toledo transfer Carter Bradley. But more importantly, receiver Jalen Tolbert is gone; he was by far the Jags’ biggest star, and they relied heavily on his 18 yards per catch for big plays and easy scores. No other returning regular averaged more than 11.9 yards per catch, and the RBs averaged less than four yards per carry. The offense does return eight starters, but efficiency will have to improve dramatically to offset Tolbert’s departure.
Was that a late-year glimmer of hope from Southern Miss and ULM? In their respective first seasons, neither Will Hall (Southern Miss) nor Terry Bowden (ULM) produced many memorable moments. They went a combined 7-17 — 1-9 against teams in the SP+ top 90 and 6-8 against everyone else. ULM did upset Liberty in October and annoyed both LSU (a 27-14 loss) and Louisiana (21-16), and Southern Miss won its last two games of the season despite a pesky “We have no healthy quarterbacks, so we’re putting other position players back there” problem. But the teams finished 116th and 124th in SP+, respectively; the overall product was not good.
They both produced some late positivity, though. Running backs Frank Gore Jr. and Antavious Willis turned into perma-Wildcat quarterbacks in those last two games for Southern Miss and had 239 passing yards to go with 121 rushing yards; combined with an improving defense, the Golden Eagles beat both Louisiana Tech and FIU. The defense also improved in Monroe, and ULM suffered three tight, one-score losses in its last four games to rise from 130th in SP+ earlier in the year.
ULM has to do some rebuilding on the offensive line and throughout the defense, where 10 of the 18 players with 250-plus snaps depart. But tackle Caleb Thomas, linebacker Zack Woodard and corner Josh Newton — the Warhawks’ most disruptive defenders — all return, as do quarterback Chandler Rogers and most of the skill corps, including sure-handed slot man Boogie Knight.
Over in Hattiesburg, there’s more reason for hope. The Eagles return 10 offensive starters (and actual quarterbacks), and Austin Armstrong’s ultra-aggressive defense returns 11 of 16 players with 250-plus snaps. That includes active linebackers Josh Carr Jr. and Santrell Latham, nickel Camron Harrell and Natrone Brooks, one of the best corners in USM’s new league. Throw in six Power 5 transfers, and this defense could play at an awfully high level.
The offense? We’ll see. Gore is awesome, and receivers Jason Brownlee and Jakarius Caston are explosive if inconsistent, but none of last year’s quarterbacks (Jake Lange, Ty Keyes, Trey Lowe, Tee Webb) were in any way effective when they were on the field. But USM could have a borderline top-50 defense, and that alone could drive their first bowl season in three years.
When will things settle down for Texas State and Arkansas State? Jake Spavital took over at Texas State two years ago, Butch Jones at Arkansas State last season. Over their last two recruiting cycles, they have, by my count (via the 247Sports Transfer Portal tracker), lost a combined 51 players to the transfer portal and brought in 48. Spavital famously signed zero freshmen, only transfers, heading into the 2021 season, and the Bobcats went from 114th in SP+ in 2020 to 118th. This year Spavital signed two freshmen and brought in only seven guys from the portal, but he lost starting quarterback Brady McBride to Appalachian State. The Bobcats are projected 118th again.
Like Spavital, Jones loaded up on new, semi-experienced faces last winter; the Red Wolves suffered their first two-win season since 2001 and their worst SP+ ranking since 1980. Jones has been a bit more cautious with his portal usage this year, bringing in only seven players to date — six from power conferences — but among other issues, he lost quarterback Layne Hatcher to … Texas State.
It’s been messy for both of these programs. Texas State doesn’t have much of an FBS history to speak of, but ASU bowled for nine straight years before falling to 4-7 in 2020, Blake Anderson‘s last season in charge, and while Anderson was rejuvenating Utah State last fall, ASU was completing its collapse.
Former Florida State quarterback James Blackman is the likely starter for Arkansas State this fall, and one figures Hatcher has a good chance to start in San Marcos. ASU has a pair of explosive receivers in Te’Vailance Hunt (formerly of TCU) and Jeff Foreman, but is rebuilding on both lines and in the secondary. Blackman’s FSU career was beset by line struggles from the start, and he might finish his career with the same issue.
The Texas State offense appears to have potential among Hatcher, running back Calvin Hill, big-play receiver Javen Banks and three potential all-conference linemen, but the Bobcats have ranked 120th in defensive SP+ in each of Spavital’s first two seasons, and there’s no immediate reason to assume that is going to get better. At this stage in the offseason, ULM is the most likely team to finish at the bottom of the West, but even a 6-6 record would be an accomplishment for either Texas State or Arkansas State.
My 10 favorite players
RB Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss. He’s Frank Gore‘s son, and he “quarterbacked” Southern Miss to two wins. He was going to make the list regardless, but he’s also a strong possession back with good pass-catching abilities.
RB Calvin Hill, Texas State. Hill gained at least five yards on an excellent 44% of his carries, and he averaged three yards after contact per carry despite being listed at 5-foot-7, 185 pounds. A unique combination.
SLOT Tez Johnson, Troy. Troy’s run game was inconsistent, so the Trojans leaned heavily on Johnson for efficiency instead. His 68% catch rate and 7.4 yards per target made him a lovely, reliable option.
LG AJ Gillie, Louisiana. The only returning starter from an outstanding line, Gillie is a high-level road grader who earned first-team all-conference honors from Pro Football Focus as a freshman in 2021.
DE Andre Jones, Louisiana. Jones is one of only two returning Sun Belt defenders to combine at least six sacks with at least 10 run stuffs. He and Zi’Yon Hill make a ferocious combo at end.
NT Wy’Kevious Thomas, South Alabama. The 294-pounder is active in two different ways: He’s a dynamite run defender (12 run stuffs), and he’s everywhere. Only two Jaguars topped his 58 tackle attempts. Oh yeah, and he’s just a sophomore.
LB Carlton Martial, Troy. It feels like Martial has been around forever — he was a freshman All-American in 2018! But he’s an absolute shop-wrecker against the run (21 run stuffs), a physical force in a nickelback’s body (5-9, 210 pounds).
LB Kivon Bennett, Arkansas State. Bennett is the other returnee with at least six sacks and double-digit run stuffs. ASU’s defense is aggressive, and that occasionally works out well when Bennett is involved.
CB Darrell Luter Jr., South Alabama. Let’s put it this way: In 10 games, Luter had as many passes defensed (four interceptions, 11 breakups) as tackle attempts (15). Whoever he is covering probably isn’t going to catch the ball much.
CB Josh Newton, ULM. Newton is almost like a cover guy and a safety at the same time — he defensed 11 passes and allowed just a 53.0 QBR in coverage, but he also made five tackles for loss and attempted 70 tackles, many near the line.
Anniversaries
In 1982, 40 years ago, Southern Miss beat Bama. The Golden Eagles did so in 1953, 1954, 1990 and 2000, too. They’ve beaten Auburn five times, Ole Miss six times, Mississippi State 14 times, but this one was particularly memorable, as it was Bear Bryant’s last Bama squad, and it ended the Crimson Tide’s 57-game home winning streak. Quarterback Reggie Collier scored three touchdowns and the Golden Eagles bolted to a 28-7 lead, then put away a 38-29 win with a late field goal.
In 2002, 20 years ago, Charles Tillman and Ike Taylor manned the same Louisiana secondary. Tillman and Taylor would go on to start for a combined 20 seasons in the NFL, and Tillman would make two Pro Bowls. The Cajuns had one of the most openly talented secondaries in the country … and went 3-9??
In 2012, ULM bowled. It’s the only time the Warhawks have done so in 35 FBS seasons, as this is a very hard job. Todd Barry’s team began the season with an overtime conquest of No. 8 Arkansas — they overcame a 28-7 deficit with a pair of Kolton Browning touchdown passes, then won it with Browning’s feet in OT — and won five in a row midseason on the way to an 8-5 finish.
Also in 2012, Arkansas State won 10 games under Gus Malzahn. How do you know when you have a good culture? When you can survive an annual coaching change and keep improving. ASU hired Hugh Freeze in 2011 and went 10-3, then went 10-3 under Malzahn when Freeze left for Ole Miss. Malzahn took the Auburn job, and ASU went 8-5 under Bryan Harsin. When Harsin left for Boise State, Blake Anderson took the Red Wolves to an average of eight wins a year over the next six seasons. (One has to worry about that culture after six wins in two seasons.) But that season with Malzahn, which featured 3,342 passing yards from Ryan Aplin and an eight-game winning streak to finish the season, was particularly fun.
Also in 2012, South Alabama and Texas State’s FBS journeys began. They haven’t produced much, if we’re being honest. USA has bowled twice, finishing 6-7 both of those seasons, but hasn’t done so since 2016, when the Jaguars scored their biggest win (21-20 over Mississippi State). Texas State … has done less than that.
In 2017, five years ago, Troy beat LSU on the way to an 11-2 season. Jordan Chunn rushed for 191 yards against the Tigers, and after riding defense for most of the regular season, the offense exploded in a 50-30 New Orleans Bowl win over North Texas. The Trojans would win 10 games the next year too, then coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia. Both Troy and Brown have searched for misplaced magic since.