NFL Week 11 guide: Picks, bold predictions and fantasy nuggets for every game


The Week 11 NFL schedule is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy‘s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk‘s Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including an AFC West showdown on Sunday night. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

Thursday: SEA 28, ARI 21

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
72.0 | Spread: BAL -5 (49.5)

What to watch for: Can the Ravens’ run defense stop Titans running back Derrick Henry? Henry ran for 195 yards against Baltimore in the playoffs last season and will face a rush defense that probably won’t have nose tackle Brandon Williams. In the Ravens’ past seven games without Williams, they have allowed an average of 165.1 yards rushing. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: Henry will run for more than 150 yards and score two touchdowns. The Titans know what it takes to get into a rhythm: giving Henry the football. This is one of those times when they have to rely on Henry to set the tone and carry the team to a much-needed victory. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is completing just 38.8% of his passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield this season, 26th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in the NFL. Last weekend against New England, Jackson was 1-for-6 (18 yards) on such throws.

Injuries: Titans | Ravens

What to know for fantasy: The Titans have failed to score more than 20 points in three of wide receiver A.J. Brown‘s seven games this season. In those instances, Brown has yet to top 40 yards and is averaging just 8.1 fantasy points per game. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: When quarterback Ryan Tannehill starts regular-season games for Tennessee, overs are 16-3, including 7-2 this season. Read more.

Davenport’s pick: Titans 24, Ravens 20
Hensley’s pick: Titans 28, Ravens 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 68.4% (by an average of 6.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: In crowded AFC playoff race, Titans entering crucial three-game stretchRavens’ offense in free fallDavis played one day after brother died of cancerRavens fighting for playoff lives

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
70.7 | Spread: NO -5 (51)

What to watch for: The Saints will try to keep their six-game win streak alive against their biggest rivals, even though quarterback Drew Brees is sidelined with broken ribs and a punctured lung. Although the Saints haven’t officially named a starter, Jameis Winston seems the obvious choice, with some Taysom Hill packages likely sprinkled in. And that makes this a fascinating audition for Winston, who went to New Orleans to try to revive his prospects after turnovers marred the beginning of his career in Tampa Bay. — Mike Triplett

Bold prediction: Winston will throw multiple interceptions against the league’s fourth-ranked defense. Come on, you really thought Winston’s turnover problems were left behind in Tampa? Not even close. — Mike Wells

Stat to know: The Falcons are 3-1 under interim coach Raheem Morris after an 0-5 start under Dan Quinn. They have the third-best offensive efficiency (78.8) in the NFL since Week 6, trailing only the Chiefs (89.8) and Buccaneers (79.0). In those first five weeks, they were 21st (59.2).

Injuries: Falcons | Saints

What to know for fantasy: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will look to establish some fantasy consistency with a healthy roster. This season, Ryan has as many finishes as a top-eight quarterback as he does weeks outside the top 20 (three apiece). See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Atlanta is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in its past eight road games. Read more.

Wells’ pick: Saints 28, Falcons 25
Triplett’s pick: Saints 26, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: NO, 73.5% (by an average of 8.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: How have the Falcons been different under Morris?Saints, Winston hope to follow the Bridgewater blueprintSaints’ surging defense can take the load off Winston



Ryan Clark explains that he isn’t worried about Drew Brees missing an extended period of time for the Saints.

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
44.3 | Spread: NE -2.5 (48.5)

What to watch for: Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson has intercepted a pass in five consecutive games, the longest streak since Reggie Nelson in 2015. According to research by ESPN Stats & Information, if Jackson intercepts a pass on Sunday, he would match the longest interception streak since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, done most recently by Brian Russell in 2003. But while Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has thrown five interceptions this season, he hasn’t thrown one since Week 5. — Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: New England running back Damien Harris will rush for 200 yards against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked rush defense. The Texans are allowing an average of 167.4 rushing yards per game, which means quarterback Cam Newton and a Patriots offense that has transformed itself into a power-running machine have a chance to feast. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots have a 75.7 offensive efficiency over the past three weeks, fourth in the NFL during that span. It’s a vast improvement from the team’s 44.1 offensive efficiency in the first seven weeks (27th). Newton, who is seeking his first three-game win streak as a starting quarterback since Weeks 7-9 of 2018, has a 76.9% completion percentage over his past two games — tops in the league over that time.

Injuries: Patriots | Texans

What to know for fantasy: Complaining about the Patriots’ backfield in fantasy needs to stop. Over the past month, Harris has accounted for 74% of New England’s RB rushing yards and faces fantasy’s worst run defense in terms of stopping running backs. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Houston is 2-7 ATS this season, tied with the Jets for the second-worst ATS mark in the NFL. Read more.

Reiss’ pick: Patriots 24, Texans 20
Barshop’s pick: Texans 24, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: NE, 51.3% (by an average of 0.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Belichick’s hoodies explained: A visual history of the Patriots coach’s most memorable looksAgainst Browns — and in 2021 — the Texans have no solid answer at running backNFL interception leader Jackson added to Pro Bowl ballot after initial omissionTexans RB Johnson goes on IRNewton after upset win: Patriots can show they’re better than 4-5

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
39.7 | Spread: PIT -10.5 (46)

What to watch for: Jaguars rookie quarterback Jake Luton is making his third start and facing the league’s best pass rush. The Steelers lead the NFL with 36 sacks (and are tied for second with 11 interceptions), led by T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree. If the Jaguars are going to be able to stay close and potentially pull the upset, it’s going to fall heavily on offensive tackles Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor keeping Watt and Dupree off Luton and giving him enough time to get the ball out. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: The Steelers will hold rookie running back James Robinson to 50 yards or fewer. Robinson has earned high praise from the Steelers’ coaches and players leading into this matchup — and with good reason. He’s averaging 109 yards per game in the past three games, but the Steelers look to be back at nearly full strength in the run defense with the return of Tyson Alualu (knee) a week ago and Mike Hilton (shoulder) trending toward playing this week. Without the pair, the Steelers’ run defense was woeful against the Cowboys and Ravens, but it’ll be motivated to prove it is an elite unit when healthy. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: When the 9-0 Steelers and 1-8 Jaguars meet Sunday, it’ll match the sixth-largest differential in win percentage in Week 10 or later in the Super Bowl era (excluding strike-shortened seasons). The Jaguars have allowed at least 24 points in eight consecutive games this season, their longest streak of allowing 24-plus points in franchise history. On the other side, the Steelers have scored 24-plus in all nine of their games this season, tied with the Saints for most in the NFL.

Injuries: Steelers | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: Robinson has just 3 yards on seven targets over the past two weeks, after posting more than 7 yards per target earlier this season. A return to versatility is almost essential this weekend against the NFL’s best defense in terms of running back fantasy points allowed. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is 1-10 ATS as a double-digit road favorite under coach Mike Tomlin, with four outright losses. Read more.

Pryor’s pick: Steelers 35, Jaguars 17
DiRocco’s pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 14
FPI prediction: PIT, 85.8% (by an average of 14.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Steelers get what they needed going into potential trap game vs. JaguarsJaguars headed for dubious distinction under owner Shad KhanTomlin says Steelers “are not a Big Ten team playing a MAC opponent” in JaguarsJaguars show growth in nearly pulling off upset at Green BayJaguars place rookie CB Henderson on IR

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
37.1 | Spread: CLE -3 (47.5)

What to watch for: Can Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, who has thrown as many interceptions this season as touchdowns (12), get anything going? He will have to take care of the ball with Browns defensive end Myles Garrett coming off the edge in what figures to be another bad-weather game in Cleveland. — Jake Trotter

Bold prediction: The Browns will score a defensive touchdown. Outside of last weekend’s game against the Giants, Wentz has been very giving with the football, turning it over 16 times. Cleveland is tied for fourth with 15 takeaways and will take one to the house on Sunday. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has zero passing touchdowns in each of his past two games. That’s his longest streak without a passing TD since going three straight games without one at Texas Tech in 2013. He also has fewer than 150 passing yards in these past two games for the longest such streak of his career (NFL and college).

Injuries: Eagles | Browns

What to know for fantasy: Both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb have been top-22 running backs in three of their four fully healthy games together this season for Cleveland. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Browns have failed to cover in each of their past four games. Read more.

McManus’ pick: Browns 30, Eagles 20
Trotter’s pick: Browns 12, Eagles 9
FPI prediction: CLE, 51.9% (by an average of 0.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Enough with making excuses for Eagles’ WentzChubb’s return powers BrownsNo fans at Eagles games amid spike in virus

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
20.9 | Spread: WSH -1 (46.5)

What to watch for: Washington’s offense has come alive of late, surpassing 400 yards in consecutive games. It hasn’t topped that total in three straight games since Weeks 15-17 of the 2015 season, but the Bengals allow 398.7 yards per game. It’ll be interesting to see how well Washington runs the ball. It ranks 30th in rushing yards per game and 28th in yards per carry, but Cincinnati ranks 27th in yards allowed per game and 31st in yards allowed per carry. — John Keim

Bold prediction: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will pass for 300-plus yards. While it might not look bold on the surface, Washington enters Sunday’s game with the top passing defense in the NFL. It will be a good test for Burrow, who is coming off a rough game against the Steelers in Week 10. — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin quietly has at least seven receptions in four consecutive games, the longest streak by a Washington player in the past 70 seasons and tied with Green Bay’s Davante Adams for the longest active streak in the NFL.

Injuries: Bengals | Washington

What to know for fantasy: Washington running back J.D. McKissic is averaging 6.2 catches per game over his past six, including 16 grabs on 29 targets in the two games led primarily by QB Alex Smith. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Cincinnati is 0-17-1 outright in its past 18 road games — but it is 11-7 ATS in those games. Read more.

Baby’s pick: Bengals 27, Washington 24
Keim’s pick: Washington 23, Bengals 21
FPI prediction: WSH, 56.2% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Burrow “not a quitter,” and he’ll need that resolve to revive BengalsWashington president Jason Wright: On new name, culture, NFL investigationFinal stretch important gauge of Bengals’ rebuild with Taylor, BurrowWashington’s Rivera says QB Smith has proved “he’s back”

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
14.5 | Spread: DET -2.5 (48)

What to watch for: Will either team get enough pressure on the quarterback to disrupt the other’s offense, particularly the Lions since there’s some question on whom Carolina might start at quarterback? Even if Teddy Bridgewater plays, his sprained knee might limit his mobility. Neither team has been very good at producing sacks. The Panthers rank 27th in the league with 11, and the Lions are 25th with 13. — David Newton

Bold prediction: Lions running back Adrian Peterson will have 75 yards rushing and a touchdown in a vintage outing against a Carolina run defense allowing 124.5 yards per game and 4.77 yards per carry. With D’Andre Swift potentially missing this one, Peterson will get some workload help from Kerryon Johnson and Jamal Agnew out of the backfield. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Detroit wide receiver Marvin Jones has a receiving TD in three straight games, tied for the longest streak of his career (Weeks 6-8 of 2013). He is fresh off an eight-catch, 96-yard receiving day versus Washington in Week 10.

Injuries: Lions | Panthers

What to know for fantasy: No defense is allowing more receiving yards per game to running backs than the Lions (53.7), and Panthers running back Mike Davis has hauled in 87% of his targets this season. Fun fact: There has yet to be a game this season in which multiple Davis targets hit the ground. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Carolina is 1-4 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Rothstein’s pick: Lions 27, Panthers 23
Newton’s pick: Lions 30, Panthers 23
FPI prediction: CAR, 51.7% (by an average of 0.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lions must keep giving Swift the ballAs frustration sets in for young Panthers, Thompson speaks upGriffen, Peterson bond over wrestling matchesMcCaffrey likely out, Bridgewater questionable



Mike Clay explains that due to a favorable matchup against the Lions, this is a good opportunity for fantasy managers to use DJ Moore in their lineups.

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
31.1 | Spread: MIA -3 (45.5)

What to watch for: Just how often will the Broncos turn the ball over? They have lost five fumbles and thrown a league-leading 16 interceptions. The Dolphins are tied for fourth in the league in takeaways and have confused, in particular, the young quarterbacks they’ve faced. Keep an eye on the Broncos’ offense in the three-wide receiver set, as all 16 interceptions have come from that this season. — Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: The Dolphins will produce five or more sacks and multiple turnovers against the Broncos’ offense. Miami’s multiple defense has frustrated offenses and quarterbacks all season but has only one game with five-plus sacks (San Francisco). That changes this weekend whether it’s a limited Drew Lock (who threw four interceptions last Sunday) or a backup under center, as the Dolphins’ defense continues its ball-snatching ways while making it a rough day for Denver. — Cameron Wolfe

Stat to know: Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is seeking to become the fifth AFC quarterback to win his first four career starts over the past 30 years (Drew Brees in 2002, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Trevor Siemian in 2016 and Patrick Mahomes in 2017-18). He also has already joined Damon Huard as the only Dolphins QBs to win their first three career starts and would be the first Dolphin to win his first four. Tagovailoa has five touchdowns and zero interceptions through three starts, joining Carson Wentz as the only rookie quarterbacks to win their first three starts and throw zero picks in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). No rookie QB has achieved that feat over his first four starts during that span.

Injuries: Dolphins | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: Week 4 was the most recent time Melvin Gordon had a touch gaining more than 11 yards. That was also the the most recent time the Denver running back ranked inside the top 20 at the position for a week. The name value and recognition far outweigh what he is giving your fantasy roster. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami is 7-2 ATS this season, tied with Pittsburgh for the best ATS mark in the NFL. Read more.

Wolfe’s pick: Dolphins 27, Broncos 16
Legwold’s pick: Dolphins 23, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: MIA, 53.2% (by an average of 1.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How the overachieving Dolphins can win the AFC EastWhy can’t the Broncos’ run game find its footing?Dolphins waive RB Howard in “mutual parting”Broncos “committed” to Lock but want him “to fight through this”Broncos’ extreme makeover is their version of tanking for Tua

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
18.8 | Spread: LAC -9.5 (46)

What to watch for: The Jets, who are looking to 35-year-old Joe Flacco in place of an injured Sam Darnold, are 0-6 in games started by QBs other than Darnold since the start of last season (7-12 with Darnold). The Chargers, meanwhile, will be looking to avoid their first 2-8 start since 2015. Quarterback play shouldn’t be a concern for them, though, as Justin Herbert has thrown multiple TDs in six consecutive games — the longest streak by a rookie in NFL history, per Elias Sports Bureau research — and is the only rookie in Chargers history with at least four 300-yard passing games in a season. The Jets will need to find a way to contain Herbert’s big arm if they want to enter the win column this weekend. — Shelley Smith

Bold prediction: Herbert will set a career high for passing yardage, meaning he will go north of 347 on the day. The Jets’ pass defense is awful, and there’s a good chance it will be breaking in a new set of cornerbacks. CB1 Pierre Desir was cut this week, and CB2 Bless Austin could sit out with a neck injury. The Jets could wind up starting three rookies in the secondary. Have at it, Justin. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: All seven of the Chargers’ losses this season have been one-score games. That is tied for the most in a team’s first nine games in NFL history, per research by the Elias Sports Bureau (2015 Ravens, 1983 Buccaneers and 1944 Brooklyn Tigers).

Injuries: Jets | Chargers

What to know for fantasy: Chargers tight end Hunter Henry has seen at least six targets in four of his past five games, and while the production has been spotty, don’t forget that he ranks as a per-game top-10 player at the position among healthy options. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Six straight Los Angeles games have gone over the total, and the over is 6-2 in Herbert starts. Read more.

Cimini’s pick: Chargers 31, Jets 14
Smith’s pick: Chargers 17, Jets 7
FPI prediction: LAC, 69.9% (by an average of 7.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Gase: Jets trying to play young guys, not tankKiller handshake: How Chargers rookie Herbert learned to cope with losingSudden fall: Jets’ Darnold goes from savior to potential trade chip

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
72.7 | Spread: IND -2.5 (51)

What to watch for: Buckle up for the Colts’ No. 1 defense and the Packers’ No. 6 offense. Colts coach Frank Reich said Green Bay will be the toughest test of the season so far for his defense, but the Colts will also be the second top-three defense the Packers have faced this season. Tampa Bay, which is No. 3 in the NFL in total defense, held Green Bay to 201 total yards, sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, forced two turnovers and gave up only 10 points to the Packers earlier this season. — Mike Wells

Bold prediction: Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers will outplay Green Bay’s Rodgers. Rivers was efficient against the Packers’ defense last season, and the Colts’ elite defense will give Rodgers fits just like the Bucs’ D did in Tampa earlier this season. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Rodgers leads the NFL with an 84.8 Total QBR this season and has three games with 300-plus passing yards and four-plus passing TDs (tied with Patrick Mahomes for the most such games). Oh, and he is 4-0 and is averaging 296.5 pass yards per game with nine passing scores in his past four games played at indoor stadiums, dating back to last season.

Injuries: Packers | Colts

What to know for fantasy: You might have missed Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s big Week 10, but be careful. Yes, the Packers wide receiver has three games with more than 19 fantasy points this season, but he also has three games with fewer than 3.5 and is facing the seventh-best defense against fantasy WRs. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Under coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 5-1 outright and ATS as a road underdog (regular season). Read more.

Demovsky’s pick: Colts 27, Packers 23
Wells’ pick: Colts 30, Packers 24
FPI prediction: GB, 54.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Next or never? What Bakhtiari’s deal with Packers means for JonesSchedule favors Colts, not Titans, for playoff spot in loaded AFCPackers activate Lazard, return offense to full strengthColts LB Leonard motivated by Rodgers slightA new Packers’ Valdes-Scantling or same old MVS?: Only time will tell



Field Yates favors Michael Pittman Jr. as he has performed well since recovering from injury, and Mike Clay thinks more opportunities are on the way for the young wide receiver.

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
34.1 | Spread: MIN -7 (47.5)

What to watch for: How will the Vikings manage Dalvin Cook‘s workload? You might expect Minnesota to lean heavy on its star running back, given it is facing a Dallas defense that is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game. But there’s a caveat, and it has to do with preserving Cook for teams that will be more difficult to beat. If the Vikings have a commanding lead at any point, do we see more of backup Alexander Mattison, or perhaps more of quarterback Kirk Cousins airing it out to rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson? After all, Minnesota is averaging 424.5 yards per game at home, while Dallas’ secondary is allowing opposing QBs a 103.1 passer rating. This should be a big day for Cousins and his receivers. — Courtney Cronin

Bold prediction: Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott will have his first 100-yard game of the season. He was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries by Minnesota last season, and after allowing a 100-yard rusher in each of the first two games, the Vikings have not allowed more than 75 yards on the ground to a runner in the past seven contests. With the return of quaterback Andy Dalton, the Cowboys figure to have more balance on offense, which should help Elliott find some running room. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Cousins has at least an 80.0 Total QBR in his past three games. Brett Favre (2009) is the only Vikings quarterback to produce an 80.0 Total QBR or better in four straight starts since the metric was introduced in 2006. Helping him along has been Jefferson, whose four games with 100-plus receiving yards are the most by a Vikings rookie since Hall of Famer Randy Moss in 1998.

Injuries: Cowboys | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: In Dalton’s lone full game this season (Week 6 against Arizona), Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Elliott all saw double-digit targets. Cooper was the fantasy producer of the trio, racking up 20.9 fantasy points on his way to a WR7 finish. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Dallas is 1-8 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the NFL. Read more.

Archer’s pick: Vikings 33, Cowboys 20
Cronin’s pick: Vikings 27, Cowboys 14
FPI prediction: MIN, 76.2% (by an average of 9.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cowboys’ Elliott on dip in production: It’s been toughVikings prove they’re contenders after 3-0 NFC North stretchLamb, Martin among Cowboys’ few bright spotsVikings’ dilemma: How much is too much for Cook?Back to practice, Dalton “looked good” for Cowboys, McCarthy saysRun like “Swiss chard”? Vikings’ Cook pulled “Tonight Show” prank

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating:
79.8 | Spread: KC -6.5 (56.5)

What to watch for: Who will show up for the Raiders on defense? Las Vegas had a statement game defensively in the victory at Arrowhead Stadium last month, but 10 of the 11 players on their reserve/COVID-19 list are defensive players. Defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who tested positive, is likely out, but the rest, including safety Johnathan Abram and defensive tackles Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins, will be eligible to play should they test negative this week. And without a stout defense, the Raiders have no shot against the powerful Kansas City offense. — Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: The Raiders will have under their season average of 370 yards and get zero plays of more than 40 yards. This might not sound very bold, but consider that Las Vegas had five plays of 40-plus yards and almost 500 yards of total offense the previous time they played the Chiefs. And no matter which team wins, there will be no victory lap around the stadium afterward. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has a 94 QBR against the blitz this season, which ranks second behind Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (98). The Chiefs have blitzed on 34% of opposing QB dropbacks this season, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.

Injuries: Chiefs | Raiders

What to know for fantasy: Prior to the bye, Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill had consecutive 25-plus-point games for the third time in his career. He now faces a defense that Mahomes has gashed throughout his career (26.2 fantasy points per game against the Raiders). See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its past five games against AFC West opponents. Read more.

Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 33, Raiders 28
Gutierrez’s pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: KC, 75.8% (by an average of 9.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Leaving Las Vegas? Carr is simply loving Las VegasWhy Chiefs’ Mahomes-to-Kelce connection is the best of its timeGruden: Raiders have little time to savor win with rested Chiefs nextRaiders buses’ victory lap at Arrowhead irritated ReidHeath jump-started Raiders’ rout of Broncos with prophesied pickMahomes motivated to avoid season sweep

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating:
82.3 | Spread: TB -3.5 (48)

What to watch for: There has been a scoring discrepancy for the Bucs in prime time versus earlier games this season. They are averaging 15.6 points for and 27 points against in prime-time games, compared to 29.6 for and 22.6 against in the earlier slates. This is their final of four prime-time games this season, and they’re 1-2 in those games. To win, they’ll need to shut down the run early — a forte of theirs under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles — to limit Rams quarterback Jared Goff‘s play-action opportunities and not get swept up in Los Angeles coach Sean McVay’s elaborate use of motion. The Buccaneers also need to give QB Tom Brady ample time to go through his progressions and make deep throws, something he didn’t have against the Saints two weeks ago. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald will record his third multisack game of the season. Sacks come in bunches, and the Rams’ defensive front is on a roll, coming off a six-sack performance against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. However, in two career games facing Brady, Donald has never taken down the three-time NFL MVP. Donald also was held without a sack against the Seahawks, so watch for the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year to be extra motivated on Monday. — Lindsey Thiry

Stat to know: Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has linked up with Brady for seven red zone TD catches this season, second among quarterback-receiver duos in the NFL (Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen have eight).

Injuries: Rams | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Tampa Bay running back Ronald Jones has been a top-25 performer at the position in five of his past seven games and has a touchdown or three catches in seven straight games. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Brady is 8-1-1 ATS in his career on Monday Night Football as a favorite of seven points or fewer. Read more.

Thiry’s pick: Rams 24, Buccaneers 21
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Rams 26
FPI prediction: TB, 65.3% (by an average of 5.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams’ Ramsey: “Time to start talking about” Williams as household nameArians: AB “a model citizen” since joining BucsWhitworth heads to IR, but Rams hopeful he can return in 6-8 weeksFirst all-Black NFL officiating crew to work Monday Night Football gameJones rewards Bucs for patience with big day, record-setting play

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