The 146th Preakness Stakes marks the second leg of the Triple Crown. Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit is the favorite to win Saturday at Pimlico.
Here is a breakdown of every horse in the Preakness Stakes, suggested plays and picks.
Note: Horses listed in order of post position (trainer, jockey in parentheses).
Chris Fallica’s guide to the field
1. Ram (D. Wayne Lukas, Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
I’ll say this about D. Wayne Lukas — he’ll run ’em in a Triple Crown race. Ram showed absolutely nothing in his first seven lifetime starts vs. MSW company, then broke maiden in the slop at Oaklawn vs. claimers. He backed that win up with an allowance win at Churchill on Derby day when the pace fell apart in front of him. This is far from a stellar Preakness field, so if he hit the board, it wouldn’t shock me at all.
2. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen) 15-1
Plodder has one lifetime win — in a Grade 2 at Churchill — and has been soundly beaten by Medina Spirit, Concert Tour and Rombauer. I’ll use him for third and fourth, but that’s it.
3. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, John Velazquez) 9-5
This will be the fourth straight year Bob Baffert has the favorite in the Preakness, and only one of the previous three has won (Justify). Excluding last year’s out-of-order Triple Crown where Authentic ran second, all five of Baffert’s Derby winners went on to win at Pimlico. His fate could be decided by Baffert’s other horse, Concert Tour, as I outline below. The game plan seems simple — send and hope for the best. And that’s exactly what happened in the Derby. He has never won consecutive races, and I don’t think he will get the same pace scenario here. Still, he’s the horse to beat and I expect one might get a better than deserved price on him either because people won’t bet on him because of the medication angle or simply because they don’t want him to win and want to root against him. I will be using him though, just don’t expect him to run 1-2 with Concert Tour, as the last time the favorite won and the second choice ran second in the Preakness was in 1981, when favored Pleasant Colony won and second choice Bold Ego ran second.
4. Crowded Trade (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano) 10-1
There aren’t many in here that I can make a case for to win, but he’s the second-most likely winner in my book. He won at first asking in January, just missed in his first start against winners in the Gotham on a fluky track and then had a bad trip when sent off at 3-1 in the Wood. He has shown he can be effective both near the lead and from off the pace. Chad Brown and Javier Castellano have teamed up to win this race before with Cloud Computing in 2017 at roughly the same price this one is on the money line. I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a big say in the outcome. If Medina Spirit doesn’t win, this is most likely the horse who will beat him. Each of the past eight years a horse at least 10-1 has cracked the exacta in the Preakness, and if this one stays at 10-1 or better, he could add his name to that list.
5. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 5-1
The Derby chart says bumped early, but he was never put in the race, which completely changed the complexion of the race, allowing Medina Spirit to get a bit easier of a lead. In a shorter field here, I would think Irad Ortiz will absolutely send and give his horse a chance, which he never got in the Derby. His only two lifetime wins have come in front-running fashion, and while I don’t expect him to be around late here, I will use him in my exacta here, in case he keeps going. I get the sense the rider change, along with the questionable tactics in the Derby and an expected change in them here, will result in an underlaid price.
6. Rombauer (Mike McCarthy, Flavien Prat) 12-1
Another Preakness runner completely devoid of speed. He has run on turf, dirt and synthetic and has a pair of in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races, so I can’t fault the connections for running for a slice. Flavien Prat should get the most out of this horse, even if that means a finish in the lower parts of the tri and super.
7. France Go de Ina (Hideyuki Mori, Joel Rosario) 20-1
I honestly have no idea what to expect here. My guess is he’s a nonfactor, but the presence of Joel Rosario intrigues me a tad. He could have a say in who winds up winning though, as I would think with a clean break — which didn’t happen last time out — Rosario will send and press the Derby winner two posts to his inside. I’ll have him in third in my trifectas as part of the all button, but I won’t press any further.
8. Unbridled Honor (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez) 15-1
Todd Pletcher doesn’t run many in the Preakness, as evidenced by his nine career runners in the race — with none since 2017 and just one ITM finish, with that coming in 2000 with Impeachment’s third-place finish — so I sense this is more a “why not?” type entry. It’s more an indication of the field and being able to pick up a check in a Triple Crown race than running in an N1X. And he’ll still have that condition after this race because he isn’t winning. If the pace is fast, maybe he can hit the board like he did at Keeneland in the slop, but his ceiling is the lower rungs of the tri from off the pace.
9. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz) 15-1
The other Chad Brown/Klaravich runner has a Grade 3 win in the Withers, but I prefer Crowded Trade to him. He was favored in the Wood, so I won’t argue with anyone who likes him. I’ll be using more in an underneath role.
10. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, Mike Smith) 5-2
It’s going to be interesting to see what instructions Mike Smith is given here. Does he ride Concert Tour the way that will give him the best chance to win — which is by going right to the front? By doing that, though, he might soften up Baffert’s other horse, Derby winner Medina Spirit. But if he doesn’t send, will he just be running interference and trying to keep Medina Spirit clear of traffic, like Restoring Hope did for Justify when Baffert won the Triple Crown in 2018? Can he win? Sure. But I don’t think the way the race is going to unfold will do him any favors.
Fallica’s suggested plays
Here are some suggested plays. I’ll use a $1 base for the exotic wagers and you can hit the repeat wager button as your budget allows. Good luck!
Anita Marks’ picks
3. Medina Spirit (9-5)
Medina Spirit shocked the horse racing world at the Kentucky Derby. Even trainer Bob Baffert said he wasn’t expecting a win. Medina Spirit ran a great race and was comfortable from the start, getting out in front of the field early.
He fortunately drew the 3 post for Saturday’s Preakness, so I can see him taking the lead early again. I know the horse will be tested often leading up to Saturday, but just imagine the frenzy that will ensue if he wins again!
4. Crowded Trade (10-1)
Chad Brown has long been plotting this race for this horse, similar to his game plan with Cloud Computing in 2017. The change of jockey to Javier Castellano could be exactly what is needed to engineer a win.
2. Keepmeinmind (15-1)
I liked this horse as a long shot in the Kentucky Derby. He experienced a series of unfortunate events that derailed his chances of pulling off an upset and finished seventh. His training season has not been kind due to weather and injuries, but removing the blinkers has been a big key to his success, and I can envision him closing in on the final stretch to deliver the upset this time around.
Plays
Win/Place/Show
2. Keepmeinmind
Exacta box (2-3-4)
Keepmeinmind
Medina Spirit
Crowded Trade