With dozens of NHL games on tap in the next seven days — and much movement in the playoff races remaining prior to the final day of the regular season on April 29 — it’s hard to know which games you should be most closely monitoring.
We’ve gathered our panel of experts to break down all the big topics in the short term, including their take on the best playoff race, predictions for two key matchups this week — Minnesota Wild vs. Nashville Predators and New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins — and more.
What’s at the top of your must-see list this week?
Emily Kaplan, NHL reporter: I’m looking forward to watching the Frozen Four this week (Thursday and Saturday on ESPN2/ESPNU/ESPN+) for great college hockey, and also some NHL implications. The expectation is that Michigan’s Owen Power will sign in Buffalo following the tournament, meaning we could see the No. 1 pick of the 2021 NHL draft debut this season.
Meanwhile, Minnesota forward Ben Meyers is the prize undrafted college free agent getting the most buzz, especially after his overtime winner dethroned UMass. Meyers has been on NHL teams’ radars for a while, but his stock rose this February at the Olympics, where he had four points in four games for Team USA, including a goal against Canada. We’ll see where he ends up, but the Wild and Detroit Red Wings are among the teams I know are pursuing Meyers.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: The shuffling in the Atlantic Division has my attention. The Lightning battle the Leafs and Bruins. Florida hosts Toronto. All but the Panthers play four games. Boston’s schedule appears relatively agreeable (barring the Tampa visit). Aleksander Barkov, Claude Giroux & Co. still (likely) hold the top spot in the division by Sunday, but by what margin? In a group in which home-ice advantage in the playoffs could make the difference between packing it in and moving on, every period feels heavy now. Just typing this out has me smiling in anticipation.
Arda Ocal, NHL host: Another vote for the Frozen Four as the big-ticket item. Beyond that, I’m loving the Hart Trophy race this season. Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Jonathan Huberdeau, Roman Josi … there are so many great options. I’m still on Team Igor Shesterkin, however. Nobody is more singularly valuable to the success of his team in the NHL this season than the Rangers’ netminder. I truly wonder if it’s time to make the Ted Lindsay Award the “MVP” trophy, because it’s the “most outstanding player” voted on by the players, but that’s a conversation for another roundtable.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: It’s the Rocket Richard Trophy race for me. Auston Matthews vs. Leon Draisaitl. The Maple Leafs have four games, and the Edmonton Oilers have four games. How much jockeying will there be for that top spot by the end of this week? It feels as if they go tit for tat every night, and it’s truly enthralling to watch two of the best players in the game duking it out from afar.
I’ll also be keeping my eye on some critical Pacific Division matchups, including Calgary at L.A. on Monday and Edmonton at L.A. on Thursday. The Kings have made a surprising push up the Pacific standings and, while they have games in hand, both Edmonton and Calgary will be trying to keep pace. Those games could go a long way in determining how that division is seeded come playoff time.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: I’ve got the Dallas Stars in my eyes this week. FiveThirtyEight had them at an 89% chance of making the playoffs heading into their game against the Seattle Kraken on Sunday. They’ll enter Tuesday’s game against the New York Islanders at home with three games in hand on the Vegas Golden Knights, with whom they’re in an intense wild-card race. It’s the start of a season-defining stretch for Dallas: 10 of their past 14 games of the season are at home, including six of their next seven games. This week, they have the Islanders (Tuesday), Toronto Maple Leafs (Thursday) and New Jersey Devils (Saturday) at home before leaving for a quick trip to Chicago on Sunday. Next week, it’s home games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks and Wild.
The Stars are in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth. Money Puck actually gives them slightly greater odds of finishing in the first wild-card spot than the second. Which would mean avoiding the Colorado Avalanche in the first round. Heed the words of Calgary coach Darryl Sutter: “If you are a wild-card team, I sure as hell don’t want to play Colorado in the first round, because it’s going to be a waste of eight days.”
What will you be watching in Wild-Predators on Tuesday? (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Kaplan: I like Minnesota here if these two teams meet in the postseason. It could be a series of excellent goaltending. Juuse Saros has been underrated but superb this season, while Marc-Andre Fleury has the capabilities of totally locking in and shutting down a team in a playoff series. (And the Wild have an extremely capable backup in Cam Talbot.) Minnesota, in my mind, is a more complete team. And the fact the Wild declared themselves “all-in” — because of the pending cap crunch beginning next season — gives them a sense of urgency, too.
Matiash: I’m still utterly weirded out seeing MAF in a Wild sweater. The move to Vegas was strange enough, if normalized over time, then we were asked to accept the shortened trip through Chicago. Now this? Still, this was one of my favorite moves ahead of the trade deadline. Minnesota is my new sleeper choice in the West, behind Colorado and Calgary, largely based on their strong tandem team between the pipes. So yeah, I want to see how the smiliest NHLer of recent years fares against a true Western challenger after sticking it to three Eastern Conference squads with his new team.
Ocal: The milestone races in Minnesota. Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov just surpassed the record for most points by a Wild player in a season, which was held for over a decade by Marian Gaborik (83, which really just goes to show you how the paradigm of offense has truly changed in Minnesota). There has never been a top-10 NHL scorer on the Wild roster at the end of the season; Kaprizov is currently sitting at sixth. He has scored 39 goals this season, and 21 of them have been assisted by his linemate Mats Zuccarello, who has 49 apples on the season; one more would tie him for most assists by a Wild player in a season. All of this to say, it’s been a good year for breaking team records in the State of Hockey.
Shilton: Minnesota lost its first two games against Nashville this season by a combined 11-4. That’s a wild (pun intended) stat. However, Minnesota is in a different place now than they have been all season. Marc-Andre Fleury is in the mix. The team has just ripped through an impressive seven-game win streak. So first, I’ll be watching on Tuesday how Minnesota exorcizes whatever demonic hold Nashville has had over it thus far. Then, it’s all about Kirill Kaprizov. He has flown under the radar as one of the NHL’s most dynamic scorers lately (six goals in his past five games). Kaprizov has never scored against Nashville, either. Intriguing!
As for who would win in a playoff series, the Predators have the edge going into Tuesday given how they’ve dominated Minnesota to date. But can they sustain that success? We’ll watch to find out.
Wyshynski: The number of “must-see” players in the NHL continues to grow each season — Minnesota certainly has one in Kaprizov. It’s rare that a defenseman fits that description, but the reason I’ll watch this game is named Roman Josi, who is putting together one of the greatest seasons for a defenseman in NHL history. Josi has a 1.23 points-per-game average through 66 games, the highest for any defenseman this season. It would be the highest average since Ray Bourque in 1993-94 (1.26) and would rank as the 19th highest in NHL history, joining the six Hall of Fame defensemen who established these previous achievements. It’s entirely possible that Josi could hit that mark this season and still end up losing the Norris Trophy to Cale Makar, who is steps behind this offensive pace and maybe even a little better defensively. But Josi will have my attention against Minnesota.
I’d take Minnesota in a playoff series. Analytically, it has been the second-best defensive team in the NHL in terms of expected goals against (2.16 per 60 minutes at even strength heading into Sunday). The problem — for two seasons — had been goaltending, and so far Fleury looks like the solution. Nashville’s advantage on the power play would be mitigated in the postseason, too. I’ll take the Wild’s depth and defense, with the acknowledgement that goalie Juuse Saros can win a series on his own for Nashville if he plays as he has in the regular season.
What will you be watching in Rangers-Penguins on Thursday? (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Kaplan: This one is tough to handicap. The Rangers are one of the few teams this season that have a goaltender who can absolutely steal a playoff series. Shesterkin is having a moment, introducing himself as the potential successor to Andrei Vasilevskiy for the title of Best Goalie on Earth. All of his underlying stats are absurd. I also think the Rangers made smart depth moves at the trade deadline — adding Andrew Copp, Justin Braun, Tyler Motte — which give them a bit more grit and make them a tougher playoff out. But when I think of the Rangers, I think of youth. They’re still so green.
I’ve been on broadcasts for more Penguins games than any other team this season. And every time I see them — from opening night to, most recently, last Saturday in Colorado — I walk away impressed. This is a veteran, savvy team that’s sneaky deep. The players are extremely well coached and already have a tough-to-play-against mentality. And perhaps most importantly, they’re getting the goaltending this year from a resurgent Tristan Jarry. So I lean Pittsburgh here.
Matiash: I want to see how Evgeni Malkin and Pittsburgh newbie Rickard Rakell build on their growing chemistry against a legitimate rival. That second line will have to be in optimum form if there’s a chance of beating New York in the postseason. The Rangers are faster and employ this year’s probable Vezina Trophy winner in the crease. Right now I have N.Y. in seven, but we’ve got a ways to go.
Ocal: See above for my whole spiel about Igor deserving the Hart. Other than that, will this be the game Chris Kreider gets to 50 goals? What an incredible season he is having, finding his touch in front of the net and on the power play. Besides goals, Kreider is also very close to reaching the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career.
Shilton: There is a seriously intriguing goaltending matchup here between Igor Shesterkin and Tristan Jarry. We’ve all waxed poetic about the incredible season Shesterkin is having for the Rangers, and it seems the better an opponent, the better he plays. Jarry has been no slouch this year, either — but New York has had his number. He has been on the losing end of Pittsburgh’s past two meetings against the Rangers, giving up a combined eight goals. I want to see how he bounces back after having just faced New York on March 29 in a hard-fought effort.
Now, come playoffs? It’s the goaltending again that would tell the story between these clubs (or, frankly, any team going up against New York). If Shesterkin is on his game, it would be tough for the Penguins to grind him down night after night in a series.
Wyshynski: It’s my long-standing belief that we take Sidney Crosby for granted. That’s understandable: Regular-season accomplishment for Pittsburgh and for its captain is almost a default setting for the NHL. It’s the most playoff-centric of the major professional team sports, and the Penguins haven’t won a playoff series since 2018. So we watch a season like the one Sid’s piecing together — 72 points in 58 games — and it doesn’t pop like other offensive campaigns. But know this: Since posting a four-point hat-trick game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Jan. 21, only five players have amassed more points (45) than Crosby has in that stretch. He knows the value of home ice in a series against the Rangers, too.
Home-ice advantage or not, I’m taking Pittsburgh in a playoff series against the Rangers. While New York has slowly improved its 5-on-5 play, the Penguins remain the superior team at even strength and have a penalty kill that can mitigate the Rangers’ incredible power play — which itself will be limited by playoff officiating. I will leap on the soapbox and declare that the Penguins would have defeated the Islanders in last year’s playoffs were it not for Jarry’s performance. Provided he’s the guy we’ve seen for the last several months and not the goalie we saw last postseason, they’ll advance.
What player are you paying the most attention to this week?
Kaplan: Robin Lehner. He has been sidelined with upper- and lower-body injuries, and with Laurent Brossoit also out, the Golden Knights are riding their third-string goaltender, Logan Thompson. The 25-year-old has steadied the ship over the past week, which has afforded Lehner more time to recover. But now Lehner is healthy enough to earn a start on Sunday, and he saved 26 of 28 shots in a 3-2 OT victory against Vancouver. How this all unfolds — and the quality of goaltending the desperate Golden Knights receive — will be fascinating down the stretch.
Matiash: Jack Eichel. If he continues to put the puck in the net like he did this past week, Vegas just might elbow its broken self into the playoffs after all.
Ocal: Phil Kessel, because I am deeply invested in the active NHL iron man streak. With Keith Yandle‘s streak ending this weekend at the hands of a healthy scratch against Toronto, will Kessel play 21 more games and take over the record? It also brings me great joy that for all the ribbing Kessel has faced, this is now the face of durability and longevity in the world’s biggest and toughest hockey league.
Shilton: I have to go with Auston Matthews here, too. How can you not want to keep tabs? He’s headed toward breaking Toronto’s single-season goal-scoring record, which has stood for over 40 years. Can he pass Rick Vaive and hit 55 goals before the week’s out? Especially when the Leafs have Florida, Tampa and Dallas on the schedule? It’ll be a challenge but one Matthews has to be excited about.
Wyshynski: Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau has been on a heater lately with 12 points in his past six games, including that five-point night against the Oilers. What intrigues me about him this week is that the Flames are hitting the road for four games, through California and up to Seattle. Johnny Hockey has devoured his home cooking with a 1.44 points-per-game average in Calgary, the fifth-best rate leaguewide for a player at his home arena. That 1.44 drops to 1.25 on the road, 10th best in the league. Again, it’s not like his points dry up when the Flames start racking up hotel stays. But I’m interested to see how he performs — especially Monday night against the Kings, who aren’t quite out of the division title picture yet.
What is the most exciting playoff race right now?
Kaplan: The Western Conference wild card. I’m specifically curious to see if the Golden Knights, with all of their injury drama, high-profile acquisitions and must-win attitude, will hang on to a playoff spot. I really believe we’re destined for one of the most unpredictable and exciting first rounds this year. But first we have to see who will be there, and in the West that is hardly decided.
It’s hard to handicap, with the bubble teams all playing an uneven number of games to this point, and it seems like every team on the cusp (Edmonton, Nashville, Dallas, Vegas, Winnipeg) has played strong lately. No idea how it all shakes out.
Matiash: I’m with Emily. The will-they/won’t-they narrative in Vegas fascinates me. After Sunday’s tilt with Vancouver, the Golden Knights face the Canucks again Wednesday before hosting the Coyotes on Saturday. Another matchup with Van City awaits them the following Tuesday. All winnable games. Another run of victories, after their recent ride of success, and the fewer games in hand might not matter. We could still see somewhat healthy versions of Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and Reilly Smith in the postseason after all.
Ocal: Absolutely the West wild card, but I’ll also highlight the Central Division. Dallas and Nashville could make a sprint to the finish and jump into the top three, especially if St. Louis falters. This is high drama that could play out all the way until the final day of the regular season.
Shilton: The Atlantic Division. There is an excellent team among the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins that will end up in a wild-card slot, and that could end up being very good for them, or very bad for whomever they’re up against. Watching how those three are sliding in and out of spots will be fun.
Wyshynski: To put a fine point on Kristen’s choice: It’s whether the Maple Leafs will have to play Boston and whether the hockey gods will gift us the Florida Panthers vs. the Lightning in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. We’d need a few things to fall into place for that to happen — like the Carolina Hurricanes winning the conference, for example, which would give the Panthers a first-round series against the first wild-card team. But this is the ideal playoff scenario.
The Maple Leafs, seeking to win a playoff round for the first time since 2004, would face their most infamous playoff tormentors in the Bruins. Either the agony is prolonged or the Leafs begin a magical Stanley Cup journey by overcoming their nemesis like the Capitals did in 2018 against the Penguins.
Meanwhile, the Panthers vs. Lightning rivalry is the best one in the NHL right now, marrying quality of play with real animosity. This playoff race doesn’t have the do-or-die stakes of the West’s wild-card scramble — such is life in the Eastern Conference, whose field has basically been set since the All-Star break — but for maximum playoff drama, hopefully this is how it plays out.