Ultimately it was moot due to a penalty, but had the Raiders attempted a field goal with 4:41 left in the half on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, ESPN’s win probability model would have considered that an egregious error.
The Raiders’ chance to win would have been 46% if they went for it, and just 40% had they attempted a field goal.
This article was originally published by Espn.com. Read the original article here.